A-League & 2nd Tier Expansion Thread V2

[Paul01]

For a second division to work there needs to minimum standards set, not just a wannabe A-League club masquerading as an NPL club.

There has to be minimum working capital, plus an appropriate vroundwith addquate lighting and membership base. There are other requirements but these are what i  an think of right now.

[Hughesy]

Correct me if I'm wrong but wouldn't a second tier just be a big NPL? It's the promotion and relegation component that will set it apart and we are nowhere near that. The advocates of a second tier are blinded by a false hope whereby it will magically make promotion/relegation perfectly viable within a few years.

I can see a second tier being established with all these grand promises of pro/rel, only for clubs to start growing restless as it is nowhere on the horizon and eventually the ass will fall out of the league because there's no incentive to maintain the increased level of spending required. 

It's a lovely idea but it's still not practical. 

[Davo]

The other thing to remember with that article is that they were talking to the head of the PFA, so naturally his focus is going to be getting the maximum amount of pay for the players, regardless of the viability of the resulting league. Especially when he says things like "We can't just reverse engineer a league to suit existing interests". So we're going for a league that doesn't suit the clubs?

[SBW]

On 7/18/2017 at 5:14 PM, Davo said:

The other thing to remember with that article is that they were talking to the head of the PFA, so naturally his focus is going to be getting the maximum amount of pay for the players, regardless of the viability of the resulting league. Especially when he says things like "We can't just reverse engineer a league to suit existing interests". So we're going for a league that doesn't suit the clubs?

They're basically right... you can't just put a 2nd division just for the sake of it.

They have to look at how are they going to structure the comp how to model the league... how's promo and relegation going to work for both A-League and the 2nd division...

If 2nd division is not a viable option... Should the A-League continue with the expansion with a franchise system and have a 2nd tier comp like they have with US soccer with MLS and the NASL?

[Hughesy]

On 17/07/2017 at 10:37 PM, Jimspade said:

I think the biggest hurdle for a relegation system here is how to keep a relegated a-league team from going under.

 

EDIT: Unless you can bring second div close behind a league in coverage and marketability. Maybe run a parallel league for a while. I really don't feel confident about the sustainability of it  . Even though i would love it.

You could ask the same question of a promoted second tier team. They'll be glorified semi-professionals at best unless they can secure a level of funding close to that of the aleague. How are they going to jump to an aleague standard, let alone be competitive, in a 3-4 month off season? There's current aleague clubs still trying to build professionalism in certain areas and they've been at it for 12 years...

[theguyyouwishyouwere]

semi-professional is how it has to start.you think the non-league teams in England are all professional? or three of four tiers down in any country around the world?

 

MOST countries that have pro-rel have had it for decades and over time they have grown more and more professional. How entitled are we to think that if we can't have a fully pro 2nd division we can't have on at all.

 

everyone has to start somewhere - and its almost never at the top.

[Smoggy]

1 hour ago, theguyyouwishyouwere said:

semi-professional is how it has to start.you think the non-league teams in England are all professional? or three of four tiers down in any country around the world?

 

MOST countries that have pro-rel have had it for decades and over time they have grown more and more professional. How entitled are we to think that if we can't have a fully pro 2nd division we can't have on at all.

 

everyone has to start somewhere - and its almost never at the top.

Indeed, the seeds of the second tier need to be sown and could take a good few years to build up. I would suggest start by creating state based second tiers in a bit more of an organised structure than we have now but no promotion or relegation at the start.

Going to a national nationwide professional second tier with promotion and relegation isn't going to happen within a few years, it will need to be nurtured along.

[Prydzopolis]

Guy,

It's about the funding and how that is able to meet the needs of the clubs and the league. 

When talk of a professional league  is spoken of in terms of the second the division, it isn't in terms of trying to replicate an A-League version 2.

The NPL clubs want to make a second division happen asap without making sure that the proper foundations are in place. What's the point in throwing it all together haphazardly for it all to fail within a year or so?

Wages wise, majority of players would be on 30-60k. Admin costs, lot lower than A-League but smaller operation, smaller costs. Other examples with different costs are the same.

Funding wise, the A-League gets its money from the TV deal from foxsports. The second division would need Fox to take on the production of the second division but how much would they be willing to fund it at?

The current issue is that the NPL clubs don't have a plan on how to move forward on the second division. They need a business plan with numbers, actual figures on how much it will cost to run to run the league & the clubs.

[Hughesy]

Of course it has to start somewhere and is going to take a while, but I don't think these clubs are interested in it taking a while. As I said above they all seem to have this false hope that once a second tier is implemented everything will snowball and we'll magically have viable promotion and relegation overnight. 

This is the problem with it all in my opinion, for the clubs it's simply about a ticket to the big time rather than establishing a proper football league system that may one day get them into the aleague as one of its overall benefits. It's tunnel vision. 

[btron3000]

On 7/22/2017 at 11:34 PM, hughsey said:

Of course it has to start somewhere and is going to take a while, but I don't think these clubs are interested in it taking a while. As I said above they all seem to have this false hope that once a second tier is implemented everything will snowball and we'll magically have viable promotion and relegation overnight. 

This is the problem with it all in my opinion, for the clubs it's simply about a ticket to the big time rather than establishing a proper football league system that may one day get them into the aleague as one of its overall benefits. It's tunnel vision. 

I don't think this is the clubs' fault. Of course they want a ticket to the big time, especially if they used to be there. The FFA are the ones that should be outlining how this might work. I mean, how are the clubs expected to work out where a 2nd division might fit and what it might need if the FFA won't even open the books on the 1st Division! 

The FFA have left things so ambiguous that people are bound to try their own hand, but the old clubs are working in a vacuum. The FFA have given them no info to work with. Dare I say it, they have #vision but no vision.

Say SOMETHING. ANYTHING.

Who would be in a position to argue if they came out and said "our plan is expansion, then when we have 16/18/20 teams we'll be able to look at a proper 2nd division." Or they could have said "we want to establish a 2nd division, but with the distances in Australia the costs are significant so we prefer a model where everyone plays in their states and then we have playoffs. Our hope is that if the 2nd division proves successful, we can use those playoffs in promotion / relegation". 

But as usual they have ****ed about. They even promised expansion and then months later they pulled it and said they would have to ask consultants to look at the A-league model.

...

so...

...

into the void everyone throws their opinions, ideas and half-hatched plans. Things get murkier and murkier.

Meanwhile FIFA is up their arse, they can't get agreement on constitutional change, they haven't brought in an appeals system, no-one is any clearer on who else might fit the Cahill Rule blah blah blah.

Piss them off already.

[Prydzopolis]

FFA  

[Taurus]

Common sense prevails. 

 

[btron3000]

2 hours ago, Prydzopolis said:

FFA  

Haha I said this when the whole model thing came up - just another excuse to do nothing. These guys will probably survive the FIFA threat, they'll get through another year of getting nowhere and all they'll say is "we have worked with FIFA, the AFC and clubs to ensure we have the constitutional arrangements that will allow football in Australia to move forward."

In other words, their only success this year will be that they saved their own skins. Somehow. Again.

[Prydzopolis]

2 hours ago, Taurus said:

Common sense prevails. 

Common sense? The FFA's idea is to delay and delay and delay. Each time they delay, they give an excuse not to bring out timelines, criteria and information.

You call that common sense?

[Paul01]

1 minute ago, Prydzopolis said:

Common sense? The FFA's idea is to delay and delay and delay. Each time they delay, they give an excuse not to bring out timelines, criteria and information.

You call that common sense?

Prydz

imho, there is no such thing a common sense, only good sense and bad sense.

the FFA is over-endowed with bad sense.

it would appear that the grub Cahill is correct that the FFA has no vision, long or short-term.

[Prydzopolis]

Re: Second division TV rights

Executive producer of SBS pops up on twitter saying they'd be interested

(Of course they'd be interested) but the "however" is the biggest issue.

The however comes down to tv rights value and the cost. They paid $3m for 1 x A-League game + 1 hour highlights without having to actually cover the cost of the broadcast themselves. I can't see SBS paying over the odds to get a competition like this off the ground.

If you follow the tweets, he compares tv audience between Arsenal friendly vs A-League game, states that it couldn't be worse than the 40k audience and goes on to say that Viceland had nothing to do with the broadcast numbers. Blames the TV rights value on the model of the league (franchise) believing that opening up pro/rel will see rights value exponentially increase.

Some interesting thoughts.

[mack]

2nd tier rights will be near worthless. How much are the AFL or nrl 2nd tier worth? 

There it is. The moment you ask for a dollar value everyone backs away. The moment one group asks another group to pay for it, the other group backs away.

The PFA says they want x million. The clubs back away.

The clubs say they only want to spend x million. The PFA says that's not enough.

The clubs want the FFA to contribute x million. The FFA say they don't have the cash.

People want SBS to come on board. SBS won't tell anyone how much they'd pay for games.

The FFA talk motherhood statements about wanting a 2nd division at some point. But back away when anyone asks them for concrete figures or what the 'model' will be, lest someone call their bluff and say "yup I've got that right now let us in".

Getting a second division up and running will be like herding cats with alpacas, except the alpacas want their millions of dollars to herd the cats paid out of another animals pocket. 

[Prydzopolis]

Mack, I disagree with you somewhat. How do you expect a guy on twitter to give out figures? I think that is unreasonable. On your points:

- PFA is the only party who has done the proper costings

- Clubs wanting to spend x but refuse to provide costings & PFA believe not enough based on there own figures

- FFA actually don't have the cash  

- SBS are willing to come on board or interested but that's as far as it goes 

There are so many unknowns, there needs to be more firm figures and details before you can start talking about dollar value in tv rights or operating budgets etc. hi q

-----------------------

The only point I'd agree with you is the value of the TV rights. The TV rights are the one that will fund the league but how much will they be valued at?

I can't see them going for much but how is it supposed to fund the whole league? If the A-League struggles with there funding, how will the rights to the second division get much more than cover basic admin costs?

[mack]

I never expected the guy to pull out a figure. He spoke as if the people running the 2nd tier wouldn't be interested in having SBS as the broadcaster, so I asked him what they would be willing to pay and he ummed and uhhed and backed away from saying anything public.

I don't think they'll ever do more than 1 live broadcast game. The rest will be online streaming at best, maybe late night delayed telecasts.

The PFA figures might as well be fairy dust. They just want cash for their players. The stability of the league is irrelevant. Just look at the A-League where they've run rings around the FFA who've given them massive increases to the salary cap, while the majority of the clubs are losing money, combined for millions upon millions every year.

All we really know is the PFA want another fully professional league, calling for clubs to spend $5.5 million a year (I guess the PFA would want the salary cap at $1.7 million a season) plus another $10 million in central funding to run the league (which seems incredibly high to me),  while the clubs want to spend half that, in effect creating a "NPL-National" type of competition.

My view is if you want a fully pro second tier that costs $5.5 million a club to run.... you might as well put those clubs into the A-League and actually improve that competition and it's revenue/media rights.

If the PFA think a second tier club is going to make $5.5 million in revenue to be break-even they've got rocks in their head. The A-League clubs rejected a $3.25 million per club offer from FFA, claiming it was below 50% of the "direct" A-League revenue. So their view is that the A-League makes around $7 million per club directly. I think the PFA just don't want to have a second tier implemented unless it's fully pro from the start, knowing that a 2nd tier that starts as semi-pro will stay semi-pro for a long long time, even if Pro/Rel is ever put in place (which is it's own crazy bag of nuttery).

If the A-League (according to the clubs) only makes roughly $7.5 million a season per club, what hope in hell does a 2nd tier club have of making $5.5 million.

[Taurus]

I find it interesting that whenever the topic of a 2nd Division is raised, the proponents only ever mentioned established NPL clubs. 

I doubt FFA will sanction a 2nd division, which doesn't provide an opportunity for many of the unsuccessful AL expansion bid franchises, to enter at that level from day 1.

[Paul01]

7 hours ago, Taurus said:

I find it interesting that whenever the topic of a 2nd Division is raised, the proponents only ever mentioned established NPL clubs. 

I doubt FFA will sanction a 2nd division, which doesn't provide an opportunity for many of the unsuccessful AL expansion bid franchises, to enter at that level from day 1.

I heard Arthur Pappas yesterday talk about NPL clubs and a second division on The Daily Football Show. He was not gung ho on NPL clubs going straight to a second division withs like facilities discussed.  that section was worth a listen.

[Hughesy]

The HAL takes up every weekend prime time slot on tv and with expansion that's going to increase. Presuming the 2nd tier is played at the same time of year that leaves no air space, unless they play games at much earlier times as lead up programming. That then suits tv viewing rather than attendance, plus no one is going to ever end up playing if you're scheduling games for 2,3,4pm in the middle of summer. It's logistically impossible to achieve the perfect outcome.

So mack is being generous saying they are near worthless because they are completely worthless. 

[GunnerWanderer]

Of course you can dare to dream as all these ambitious npl clubs are but the chances of 2nd division are zero unless someone funds the league

 

maybe approach Neymar he's cashed up as of today 

[Prydzopolis]

2 hours ago, hughsey said:

The HAL takes up every weekend prime time slot on tv and with expansion that's going to increase. Presuming the 2nd tier is played at the same time of year that leaves no air space, unless they play games at much earlier times as lead up programming. That then suits tv viewing rather than attendance, plus no one is going to ever end up playing if you're scheduling games for 2,3,4pm in the middle of summer. It's logistically impossible to achieve the perfect outcome.

So mack is being generous saying they are near worthless because they are completely worthless. 

40c in the middle of summer, ask the W-League girls how that works out for them . The other extreme is 10pm at night! 

100% spot on, when is it supposed to be played? Midweek? I wouldn't mind that but it would be a ghost town for ratings both tv audiences and attendances.

Maybe a second division team would be happy playing after a 5pm game (Saturday or Sunday) giving the broadcaster the opportunity to use  the set up already there for the A-League game  + not having an issue of ruining pitch quality. Teams that have there own stadium would be opposed of course.

---------------

Mack, 100% agree on you about the increases to the salary cap without actually making sure teams are stable first. Crazy stuff but the power is in the players hands and affords them the ability to demand the increases.

The biggest issue with the PFA figures and costings is that nobody has seen them! I think it will be professional from a sense of making sure that clubs are run properly and league sustainable but disagree about wanting a salary cap of 1.7 making it professional league for the players. That's an average salary of 75k! I think that the highest salaries would be around the 70-100k mark but not more than 3-4 players in each squad. Otherwise this second division will just not get off the ground.

You say a $10m central fund but what does that actually fund? What are the costs involve? Structure of the league? Teams involved? Etc etc As I said, need to see proper PFA costings first.

[StringerBellend]

Interesting view on promotion and relegation from Joe Gorman in his book 

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/football/a-league/aleague-promotion-and-relegation-national-second-division-joe-gorman-book-extract/news-story/063a7b5e96dad1220dbc4de2ec8b30e4

 

[mack]

The NSL rarely had "fixed" relegation & promotion in place. Almost as many teams simply folded or withdrew than were directly relegated.

In 1979 South Melbourne finished 14th but Sydney Olympic who finished 13th were relegated instead because (apparently) the powers that be decided they didn't want a Melbourne club being replaced by a Sydney club in the league the next year.

It's interesting see the biggest ex-NSL clubs who were practically immune from relegation (when it was in place) crying out for the A-League to have automatic relegation to a second tier, something the NSL was never overly committed to. I believe more clubs over the course of the NSL folded and/or voluntarily moved back to state leagues than were ever relegated.

I've just had a look and tallied it up.

12 teams over the course of the NSL were directly relegated (ie, they were last and gone, or 2nd last and gone). 7 were relegated despite finishing above another club in the league table (example Olympic in 1979). 10 clubs folded or withdrew from the competition.

1986 is a bit of an anomaly as the NSL in 85 & 86 was conducted in "conferences" with added numerous teams to the league. That system was canned after the 86 season, thus about half the teams went back to the state league, so I didn't count that because it would be a wild distortion. 

[Stokz]

This is my dream:

https://twitter.com/adampeacock3/status/894524051275751424 (14 teams a-league, 14 teams 2nd div)

Ideal initial tv scenario:

1-2 live games a week 

1 weekly highlights show

Rest of games available to be streamed FFA cup style.

 

Edited August 7, 2017 by Stokz

[Hughesy]

17 hours ago, StringerBellend said:

Interesting view on promotion and relegation from Joe Gorman in his book 

https://coupler.foxsports.com.au/api/v1/article/amp/football/a-league/aleague-promotion-and-relegation-national-second-division-joe-gorman-book-extract/news-story/063a7b5e96dad1220dbc4de2ec8b30e4

 

That's brilliant. There's a couple of home truths in there that people may struggle to deal with. 

[Prydzopolis]

 

[Prydzopolis]