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The Weather Thread.


Wanderboy

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14 minutes ago, marron said:

big hard sheet of ice on the windscreen this morning took a good 5-10 minutes to defrost. lovely day now though.

Visibility stunning, can see for miles today. Cleanest air and best visibility on days like this following a cold front.

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  • 3 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

Potential snow days heading your way week Marron.

I am heading bush Friday...back Monday...main cold prob gone by then.

Edited by Smoggy
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Posted (edited)

Yeah looking possible.

Mrs has relatives from QLD staying on the Central Coast with the inlaws who want to come and see it. Can't seem to make them understand, there's no guarantee, and generally if it happens it happens overnight so we can let them know in the morning but by the time they sit through the traffic all the way up here they'll most likely only see brown sludge. And no, it's not okay to just come and stay at our place for the week just in case.

Friday I am going bush as well, or at least planning to, for the day. Kid has a dentist appointment, first thing in LIthgow, usually only goes 10 minutes, then drop her at school, oh dear, not really worth getting to work by the time that's done though, the rest of the day to myself then, damn. Might try taking a real camera to see if I can get a better shot of that 1875 spot with it. 

 

 

Edited by marron
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9 hours ago, marron said:

Yeah looking possible.

Mrs has relatives from QLD staying on the Central Coast with the inlaws who want to come and see it. Can't seem to make them understand, there's no guarantee, and generally if it happens it happens overnight so we can let them know in the morning but by the time they sit through the traffic all the way up here they'll most likely only see brown sludge. And no, it's not okay to just come and stay at our place for the week just in case.

Friday I am going bush as well, or at least planning to, for the day. Kid has a dentist appointment, first thing in LIthgow, usually only goes 10 minutes, then drop her at school, oh dear, not really worth getting to work by the time that's done though, the rest of the day to myself then, damn. Might try taking a real camera to see if I can get a better shot of that 1875 spot with it. 

 

 

Long weekend coming and snow potential in upper mountains means -

Shocking traffic jams all the way up the mountains

idiots parking where they like to take photos..

Meh...I got my snow fix up there last year. I am heading down West of Canberra way again, roads less travelled. Leave the chunts to it.

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, marron said:

Yeah looking possible.

Mrs has relatives from QLD staying on the Central Coast with the inlaws who want to come and see it. Can't seem to make them understand, there's no guarantee, and generally if it happens it happens overnight so we can let them know in the morning but by the time they sit through the traffic all the way up here they'll most likely only see brown sludge. And no, it's not okay to just come and stay at our place for the week just in case.

Friday I am going bush as well, or at least planning to, for the day. Kid has a dentist appointment, first thing in LIthgow, usually only goes 10 minutes, then drop her at school, oh dear, not really worth getting to work by the time that's done though, the rest of the day to myself then, damn. Might try taking a real camera to see if I can get a better shot of that 1875 spot with it. 

 

 

Also if relatives want to see the snow my advice would be to watch the forecast next week closely and then book in to accommodation at Oberon the day before any snow is due. Always more reliable snow there.

They could take in Jenolan Caves on the way....but unsure if they are open these days..

Edited by Smoggy
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Posted (edited)

Wanderboy is the expert here, but to me this looks like potential for a major snow event Weds and poss into Thursday...possibly a major snow dump on the Oberon Plateau, that is where I would be heading. How much gets through to the upper mountains is always tricky. But def the chance of a major fall.

Edited by Smoggy
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The Caves I think are still closed, there's a road closed near hampden and I think the road in is still dodgy. A bloke I know in Parks told me the caves management job is the most plum job there is - you get the same pay as the manager for the whole BM park and it's been closed for the better part of the last year and a half. :lol:

Anyway good shout on Oberon but I don't think I will be able to convince them. 

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Yeah, I head someone mention could be 50cm on Oberon Plateau. With some strong winds around that is road closure stuff, poss in to Lithgow area also.... Lots to fix down before then but potential there for this to be a bit more than a upper blue mountains dusting that melts in an hour..we shall see.

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BH Weather guy is using cautious language, but he usually does. He's disappeared behind a paywall for the details too (which, good on him).

I'd love an epic one we'll have to see though, already taking Friday off which looks bad enough haha.

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Even the Ch 10 weather guy last week said something rather unusual and severe was likely on its way next week.

 

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1 hour ago, marron said:

BH Weather guy is using cautious language, but he usually does. He's disappeared behind a paywall for the details too (which, good on him).

I'd love an epic one we'll have to see though, already taking Friday off which looks bad enough haha.

I have seen some weather charts and snow depth predictions the likes of which haven't been seen since the late 1800's early 1900's. But then we have been here before only for it to be massively downgraded as it gets close. Its an interesting one.

Get plenty of fire wood and supplies in just in case eh :D

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Nope, ripped out the fireplace in the summer, finally taking it off to a mate for his crazy hippy house on the weekend. :D Haven't put the outside firepit in yet either... so of course now we'll get a massive blackout and freeze to death :lol:

 

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1 hour ago, marron said:

Nope, ripped out the fireplace in the summer, finally taking it off to a mate for his crazy hippy house on the weekend. :D Haven't put the outside firepit in yet either... so of course now we'll get a massive blackout and freeze to death :lol:

 

You ripped your fireplace out! :o

Would love a real fireplace again.  A few lit around here tonight I can tell. Proper solid winters night out there tonight.

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My fireplace has been going strong every night for the last few weeks and will continue to until probably August or so. Nothing better than a fire in winter.

And no fireplace in the mountains in winter = madness!

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1 hour ago, marron said:

Nope, ripped out the fireplace in the summer, finally taking it off to a mate for his crazy hippy house on the weekend. :D Haven't put the outside firepit in yet either... so of course now we'll get a massive blackout and freeze to death :lol:

:fool:

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So it was not installed according to regs and last time we got it checked out the sweep said it would need replacing soon, he had to patch the flue and there were some other issues. he also said council will sometime in the near future start monitoring smoke and this one wouldn't pass. Bottom line is it would need replacing. Problem there is the footprint is basically in an entry way which wouldn't be allowed now (probably wasnt then either) and even if it did would need a much bigger foot than what is there and basically render our living space even smaller than it is already. So we knew it would have to go some time soon. Then we got some job keeper for the mrs during covid and went, **** it, let's get the ducted in for summer.

A fire is nice but chopping wood and spending hours getting it going when its your only heat source and everyone has been out all day is a pain compared to a button that heats the house up in 5 minutes. And now we can cool down the house in summer too on those hot ones.

And we will still have the firepit in the yard for when we want some fire atmosphere.

Only drawback like I said is the power outage but I reckon that will come less frequently than the nights where we just got home and couldn't be arsed with a fire and just rugged up anyway.

My mate I'm giving it to lives in lithgow council middle of nowhere where it won't matter what state it's in :lol:

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4 hours ago, Smoggy said:

I have seen some weather charts and snow depth predictions the likes of which haven't been seen since the late 1800's early 1900's. But then we have been here before only for it to be massively downgraded as it gets close. Its an interesting one.

Get plenty of fire wood and supplies in just in case eh :D

It's a tough one to predict this week but there really could be some heavy snow in strange places this week.

 

A943D5D6-13F6-4C90-AB60-F4C673A8EBDF.png

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Just now, Wanderboy said:

It's a tough one to predict this week but there really could be some heavy snow in strange places this week.

 

A943D5D6-13F6-4C90-AB60-F4C673A8EBDF.png

Yeah, that’s a bullseye on the Oberon area of 40mm - 50mm, but that is a pretty solid snow area out to Lithgow. Marron’s gaff in the 5mm - 15mm areas..Main road Lithgow - Bathurst would be cut for a while I reckon.

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An even worse scenario.

Also, winds of up to 120 km/h possible on the Central Tablelands on Thursday morning, which means blizzards for the Blue Moutains, Orange, Oberon etc..

4 days out so still tbc, but forecast models are aligning.

 

xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2021060600_105_41597_294.png

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1 minute ago, Wanderboy said:

An even worse scenario.

Also, winds of up to 120 km/h possible on the Central Tablelands on Thursday morning, which means blizzards for the Blue Moutains, Orange, Oberon etc..

4 days out so still tbc, but forecast models are aligning.

 

xx_model-en-304-0_modez_2021060600_105_41597_294.png

Wow!:o That’s 6’ snow drift territory!

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27 minutes ago, Smoggy said:

Wow!:o That’s 6’ snow drift territory!

For possible drifts, yes.

I've not seen a forecast like this for a long time. It still may not come to fruition, but we are only 3 days out and normally models start aligning in that time frame which they are.

I just can't imagine a 50 cm blizzard type scenario on the Central Tablelands, yet that is what the models are predicting, and have been for two days now. BOM still not quite on board yet, but they are getting there. They are always late to the party. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Wanderboy said:

For possible drifts, yes.

I've not seen a forecast like this for a long time. It still may not come to fruition, but we are only 3 days out and normally models start aligning in that time frame which they are.

I just can't imagine a 50 cm blizzard type scenario on the Central Tablelands, yet that is what the models are predicting, and have been for two days now. BOM still not quite on board yet, but they are getting there. They are always late to the party. 

Marron, this isn’t an overnight dusting and brown slush by lunchtime thing :D Bugger, wish I had midweek off now and a trip to Oberon lined up...

Your our reporter on the ground next week :D

 

Edited by Smoggy
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1 minute ago, Smoggy said:

For Australia, that’s significant...

Yeh, pretty much.

When you Poms get your snow, it's normally from the north, or east or NE, originating from Russia/Siberia by large high pressure systems squeezed against Lows. 

Hardly ever from the west or south, due to the Gulf Stream and warmer Atlantic ocean temps.

 

If only we had a land mass south of our contintent, (like Canada is to the USA.) 

We would have seasonal snow in Sydney every winter.

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Wanderboy said:

Yeh, pretty much.

When you Poms get your snow, it's normally from the north, or east or NE, originating from Russia/Siberia by large high pressure systems squeezed against Lows. 

Hardly ever from the west or south, due to the Gulf Stream and warmer Atlantic ocean temps.

 

If only we had a land mass south of our contintent, (like Canada is to the USA.) 

We would have seasonal snow in Sydney every winter.

Biggest snow events in UK are usually in marginal set ups when you have cold air established and a warm front tries to move in from the west / Atlantic. One side of the front can be like -2c and the other side +10c, and where the two meet a shyte load of snow. 

Or where I am from on the east coast when you get an easterly wind blowing right across the North Sea you can get lake effect snow, like Great Lakes in America. Very heavy snow down the east coast, while 20milesor so in land hardly anything. Seen that loads of times. 

Edited by Smoggy
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