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The road to 6th spot and the GF

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Popa was quoted saying: "At the end we want to win it. I don't see why that should change."

 

I am assuming that the "it" he was referring to was the GF. Popa seems just a tad optimistic here, and I can't help but think of Baghdad Bob.

 

Unless a quality striker (someone who can force a victory) is arriving yesterday, and a few more reinforcements are joining for the ACL campaign: we've got Buckley's.

 

06 Jan HAL Rd14 away City

14 Jan HAL Rd15 away Smurfs

22 Jan HAL Rd16 home Jets

28 Jan HAL Rd17 away Roar

04 Feb HAL Rd18 away Phoenix

12 Feb HAL Rd19 home CCM

18 Feb HAL Rd20 home Smurfs

21 Feb ACL home

25 Feb HAL Rd21 away Perth

28 Feb ACL away

04 Mar HAL Rd22 home Reds

15 Mar ACL away Seoul

19 Mar HAL Rd23 home Phoenix

24 Mar HAL Rd24 home City

01 Apr HAL Rd25 away Jets

08 Apr HAL Rd26 home VIC

11 Apr ACL home Seoul

15 Apr HAL Rd27 away Reds

 

21-23 Apr HAL F1

26 Apr ACL away Japan

28-30 Apr HAL F2

07 May HAL GF

10 May ACL home

22/23 May ACL Rd of 16

30/31 May ACL Rd of 16

 

 

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Yes, I know, the collapse of both Smurfs and VIC is imminent, and the gap between them and us is going to melt like snow flakes in the Sahara desert.

 

In the meantime I am trying to remind myself that one needs to win games to reach the post season cup, and needs to win a couple more games to reach the GF before one can talk about winning the GF.

 

But maybe I've just missed the mail from the club. The one that explained that this time the WSW season would not start with Rd1 but around mid season....

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Popa was quoted saying: "At the end we want to win it. I don't see why that should change."

 

I am assuming that the "it" he was referring to was the GF. Popa seems just a tad optimistic here, and I can't help but think of Baghdad Bob.

 

Unless a quality striker (someone who can force a victory) is arriving yesterday, and a few more reinforcements are joining for the ACL campaign: we've got Buckley's.

 

06 Jan HAL Rd14 away City

14 Jan HAL Rd15 away Smurfs

22 Jan HAL Rd16 home Jets

28 Jan HAL Rd17 away Roar

04 Feb HAL Rd18 away Phoenix

12 Feb HAL Rd19 home CCM

18 Feb HAL Rd20 home Smurfs

21 Feb ACL home

25 Feb HAL Rd21 away Perth

28 Feb ACL away

04 Mar HAL Rd22 home Reds

15 Mar ACL away Seoul

19 Mar HAL Rd23 home Phoenix

24 Mar HAL Rd24 home City

01 Apr HAL Rd25 away Jets

08 Apr HAL Rd26 home VIC

11 Apr ACL home Seoul

15 Apr HAL Rd27 away Reds

 

21-23 Apr HAL F1

26 Apr ACL away Japan

28-30 Apr HAL F2

07 May HAL GF

10 May ACL home

22/23 May ACL Rd of 16

30/31 May ACL Rd of 16

 

Lets say we continue our current form. 

losing to ESFC and Victory, Beating the reds and the mariners, drawing with everyone else

 

we are on 14 points now

 

06 Jan HAL Rd14 away City - 15 pts

14 Jan HAL Rd15 away Smurfs - 15 pts

22 Jan HAL Rd16 home Jets - 16 points

28 Jan HAL Rd17 away Roar - 17 points

04 Feb HAL Rd18 away Phoenix - 18 points

12 Feb HAL Rd19 home CCM - 21 points

18 Feb HAL Rd20 home Smurfs - 21 points

21 Feb ACL home

25 Feb HAL Rd21 away Perth - 22 points

28 Feb ACL away

04 Mar HAL Rd22 home Reds - 25 points

15 Mar ACL away Seoul

19 Mar HAL Rd23 home Phoenix - 26 points

24 Mar HAL Rd24 home City - 27 points

01 Apr HAL Rd25 away Jets - 28 pts

08 Apr HAL Rd26 home VIC - 28 pts

11 Apr ACL home Seoul

15 Apr HAL Rd27 away Reds - 31 pts

 
The lowest number of points in the 27 game season to qualify for the finals is 34. And that was the year Perth got booted from the finals due to the salary cap breaches so it would have been higher had Perth not been sanctioned in this way. So in current form we won't even qualify for the finals. But how much improvement is required? If we win against the teams below us on the table (so beat the jets and wellington in the games against them) then we'll get 39 points and probably squeak in to the finals simply by virtue of the fact that the teams below us don't take points off us to climb above us.
 
Then we'd have to do something never done before and qualify for the grand final from outside the top 2. Probably from 6th place so away finals only. remember we won't have beaten any of the other teams in the finals at all this season.  
 
If we improve our home form and win all our remaining home games (in addition to beating the teams currently below us) we then climb to 45 points. which would be pretty safely in the top 6, probably get us a home final and would mean that the only team we haven't beaten at least once this season this season will be Roar.
 
So thats the equation in terms of what improvement is required to achieve what has been set as the target.
 
We can't continue current form, must at least beat the teams below us on table in addition to not losing games to teams other than ESFC and MV, an improvement in home form to win those game as well should be our minimum requirement.
 
How do we do that? i'm not sure Vedran, antonis, Babalj are the answer (although may form part of it). IMO we need more natural width so we don't have our 3 attacking mids and striker all within a 5 m radius of each other.   

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

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The one positive I see is that I think a much lower number of points will be required to make 5th and 6th than other years. Last year 5th was only a win ir so behind first. This year there will be an absolute chasm between ESFC and 5th. The sides around us are also losing to the top two, and often drawing with each other - only slight improvement at home should see us edge into the six. I don't like our chances beyond that though, but who knows, ESFC or MVFC may turn in their worst at the wrong time (for them).

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Let's be honest, we're not winning the gf from 5th or 6th. I know there's a first time for everything blablabla, but winning 3 away games in a row with this team...lol. Although we're better away than at home, so...

 

Our only hope is to go on a S1 esque run and finish 3rd, maybe 2nd at a stretch.

 

I agree that the lack of intimacy, shall we say, at our home ground is definitely a factor (even though I've been overseas for most of the season), but logistically the Riff was never really an option. I just think we're going to have to accept not really having much of a home ground advantage until we have our new stadium.

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If the plan was to recruit in Jan and make a second half of the season push then let's see it !

 

So far I doubt relacing goalkeeper was part of the plan so all we have is midfielder on loan who has played about 4 mins this season and maybe a striker that hasn't scored in three years

 

Current squad can maybe scrape 5th or 6th then go out on in finals. Add a top quality finisher we might go further

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Well if we can draw all of our finals matches, we can win on penalties. As long as Dimas doesn't take one.

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Even with a top quality striker, i don't believe a team with a spine of Aspro/Borda/Dimas/Bruno can win it.

 

Plus with all the big names we are linked with, we end up with a training contract for Babalj. I'll believe that our owners are willing to spend some money when I see the official press release.

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I cant see us making anything but 5th or 6th (or lower?). Might get a thousand or two for the first away semi at either Citeh or Roar especially if we get a decent striker, to reignite the unfaithful. 2 thousand away would make a real statement about the club. Chances?

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I think we are forked this season tbh. It's far too many variables, too many "If this, if that". Hope for a better recruitment in the 5 month off season and roll on October. Looking forward to my members pack already as I need another bleedin' key-ring  ;)

Edited by beatsurrender

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

 

Panthers didn't want us...

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

 

 

Panthers didn't want us...

Pepper only has around 6000 seats

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That may well be so. But even if the seating capacity had been sufficient or could have been extended: they didn't want us.

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Putting aside form, the draw and everything else... one major hurdle for Popa.... he has to hope he doesn't have to play Arnold along the way in the finals too. Otherwise we will need the Japanese ref, Matt Ryan to take penalties and Brosque and co to put on an offf day McBreen.

 

And the winning lotto numbers that week will be 3, 44, 20, 18, 32 and 22.

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The only teams we've beaten this season are Adelaide & the Mariners.

 

Are we suddenly going to be able to not lose to Victory & SFC by four goals by adding one striker & changing our keeper?

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The only teams we've beaten this season are Adelaide & the Mariners.

 

Are we suddenly going to be able to not lose to Victory & SFC by four goals by adding one striker & changing our keeper?

We may well come back to this thread in 3 or 4 months and be really surprised after pulling off an amazing second half of the season come back.

 

But I think we have to be realistic here, we are so far off the pace of the top 2 or 3 and unless there are some major surprise signings that really shake things up I just cannot see anything special happening this season.

 

The fact we are here discussing the remaining fixtures, previous totals from those who finished 6th and what we need to do to sneak in to 5th or 6th place says it all. Nothing wrong with optimism with still so many points to play for, but I am not seeing a major change in the second half of the season.

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You need to aim for a minimum of 40 points to be 3rd or 4th which means you want 1st and 2nd to keep winning against teams you're competing against. 

And need to be over 30 odd to be in the top 6 

Edited by Stpeters

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

Panthers didn't want us...

Shame because it would have been perfect for the same type of atmosphere and 15,000 in that stadium is far better than at spotless or anz.

 

 

I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

 

Panthers didn't want us...

Pepper only has around 6000 seats

Really? I thought it would be more than that. It has 2 stands on either side. 10,000 seats would have been my guess.

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

Panthers didn't want us...

Shame because it would have been perfect for the same type of atmosphere and 15,000 in that stadium is far better than at spotless or anz.

 

 

I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

Panthers didn't want us...

Pepper only has around 6000 seats

Really? I thought it would be more than that. It has 2 stands on either side. 10,000 seats would have been my guess.

 

 

Austadiums quotes 8000 seats. That means they can cram 14500 onto the hills.

 

http://www.austadiums.com/stadiums/stadiums.php?id=86

Edited by Wanderboy

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The only teams we've beaten this season are Adelaide & the Mariners.

 

Are we suddenly going to be able to not lose to Victory & SFC by four goals by adding one striker & changing our keeper?

Maybe not but it will hopefully turn a bunch of those draws by a combination of finishing chances and not giving our weekly calamity goal away.

 

If we had a absolute top level player (like an Eduardo or drogba) then who knows in the finals football is a funny game only have to have him lash a could in and hang on.

 

It ain't going to happen though

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I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

Panthers didn't want us...
Shame because it would have been perfect for the same type of atmosphere and 15,000 in that stadium is far better than at spotless or anz.

 

 

I bet the club now wishes they took pepper stadium at penrith for a home ground, bar the derbies at anz. It would have felt like parramatta for us and in turn may have seen rabbits drawn from hats in those games we drew with possibly narrow wins coming off the back of a closer to the action crowd atmosphere. Far-ken shame really because it would have suited us better. The home draws and losses are what is killing us....

Panthers didn't want us...
Pepper only has around 6000 seats
Really? I thought it would be more than that. It has 2 stands on either side. 10,000 seats would have been my guess.

Austadiums quotes 8000 seats. That means they can cram 14500 onto the hills.

 

http://www.austadiums.com/stadiums/stadiums.php?id=86

 

Having been there a number of times, there is simply no way that is even close to true. A 15k/6k seat to hill split would be a better guess.

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Loving the optimism of this thread, people. ;)

Seems like a few of us might be in need of a group hug.

:grouphug:

 

It's a little early to be writing off this season, just yet.

This weekend is literally only the halfway point.

 

If, for example we started to win this weekend, and then went on winning for the rest of the season.

And if, for example ESFC started drawing this weekend, and went on drawing for the rest of the season.

Then we would finish ABOVE ESFC in the comp.

 

I'm not saying that is likely to happen.

Only that it COULD happen.

 

 

Some of us are commenting as if we have already lost the comp.

When in fact, because we are about to start the halfway point, literally ANY position on the ladder is still, technically possible.

 

All it's takes is a little luck, a little belief and a little shoot *****!!!

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Don't wish to dim your bright spark, however, your post reminds me of  the Voltaire satire Candide. The satire centres on a young man called Candide, who veers from one disaster to another, instilled with a false hope by his mentor, Professor Pangloss, who's name came to symbolize  

baseless optimism.

 

Over to you FCB for a more detaield analysis of the IFS, COULDS,  and a Little belief.

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Don't wish to dim your bright spark, however, your post reminds me of the Voltaire satire Candide. The satire centres on a young man called Candide, who veers from one disaster to another, instilled with a false hope by his mentor, Professor Pangloss, who's name came to symbolize

baseless optimism.

 

Over to you FCB for a more detaield analysis of the IFS, COULDS, and a Little belief.

Voltaire, huh?

I can't say I've read any of his works.

 

Was he the bloke who said 'I think, therefore I am'?

 

Well I don't want to question your existence, but if you think about my comment, you would realise that with 14 weeks to go there are MORE points on offer going forward, then there has been for 13 weeks just past.

 

Thats not a guarantee we will take all the points on offer, but I wouldn't call it a position of false hope either.

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we will finish 6th, and esfc will come 1st, but then in the finals we will beat them (1st vs 6th )

and they will be the 3 out of 3 chokers :rofl:

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I think we are forked this season tbh. It's far too many variables, too many "If this, if that". Hope for a better recruitment in the 5 month off season and roll on October. Looking forward to my members pack already as I need another bleedin' key-ring ;)

100% this. Too much room for false hope in what at the time of posting is a very grim looking situation. Although of course the club shouldn't give up in gunning for a decent finish on the table (the premiership is well out of reach that's for sure), if things continue on the current trajectory I'm hoping the club begins to have a serious think about next season and start looking at potential signings nice and early as well as giving some more game time to our younger players.

 

If all else is fuarked put the old farts on the bench and give the young blood the chance to do something. **** it and call up some of the players from the NPL and youth squads if we can. Even when we're doing **** we should have a forward looking mentality.

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Don't wish to dim your bright spark, however, your post reminds me of the Voltaire satire Candide. The satire centres on a young man called Candide, who veers from one disaster to another, instilled with a false hope by his mentor, Professor Pangloss, who's name came to symbolize

baseless optimism.

 

Over to you FCB for a more detaield analysis of the IFS, COULDS, and a Little belief.

Voltaire, huh?

I can't say I've read any of his works.

 

Was he the bloke who said 'I think, therefore I am'?

 

Well I don't want to question your existence, but if you think about my comment, you would realise that with 14 weeks to go there are MORE points on offer going forward, then there has been for 13 weeks just past.

 

Thats not a guarantee we will take all the points on offer, but I wouldn't call it a position of false hope either.

 

 

I think you are referring to Renee Descarte French Philosopher or possibly the guy in the British comedy ALLO, ALLO.

 

One should become a pessimist as they are never disappointed.

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