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Taurus

Bet Responsibly Punting Thread

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Given we are only 5 weeks away from the start of the 2019 / 20 season & our competitive return to Wanderland 2.0, I thought it timely that we started a dedicated thread to discuss all things wagering related, when it comes to the Wanderers Sydney Wanderers.

If you have an interest in a nag or dishlicker that may be able to line the pockets of forumites, this is also a good place to share such information. 

I'll start it off by posting a summary of futures markets in relation to the PP & GF winner markets where available, at the TAB (Jolly Green Gint) & three well known Corporate bookies. 

There are some variations across the betting agencies, so it pays to shop around, & I'll highlight the top odds in the sample of markets.

TAB 

https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Soccer/competitions/A League Futures

Very tight prices available on WSW across all of their markets currently. They have been tightened WSW's odds regularly in recent weeks, in reaction to our pre-season signings & form. 

IIRC, they did bet approx $14 for us to win the GF early doors

A League Futures

Show TAB Prop Number
  Winner  Minor Premiership  Top 6 
       
Perth Glory
4.75
 
4.50
 
1.12
 
Sydney FC
4.75
 
3.75
 
1.08
 
Melbourne Victory
6.00
 
5.50
 
1.25
 
Melbourne City
6.50
 
5.50
 
1.25
 
Western Sydney Wanderers
10.00
 
9.00
 
1.65
 
Adelaide United
13.00
 
15.00
 
2.00
 
Newcastle Jets
13.00
 
15.00
 
2.00
 
Western United
13.00
 
15.00
 
2.00
 
Brisbane Roar
15.00
 
15.00
 
2.00
 
Central Coast Mariners
31.00
 
41.00
 
3.50
 
Wellington Phoenix
51.00
 
81.00
 
5.00
 
 

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BET 365

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B1/C172/D1/E41904671/F2!/AS/B1/

Top Odds - $13 available about WSW to win the GF 

No other futures markets available atm

 

BET EASY 

Comprehensive service with markets available for the Grand Final, Top 6, Premiers Plate & Wooden Spoon.  

https://beteasy.com.au/sports-betting/soccer/australia/a-league-futures/outright-markets-20191018-1311791-39844191

Top Odds - $16 to win the PP is still a sensational price! The TAB being the only other option at $9. If you haven't already, bet early & bet often! 

OUTRIGHT MARKETS
October 18, 2019 7:30pm40d 19h
Selection
A-League Grand Final Winner Top 6 Minor Premiers Wooden Spoon
Sydney FC
4.25 1.06 3.50 101.00
Perth Glory
5.00 1.12 4.50 51.00
Melbourne Victory
5.00 1.12 4.50 51.00
Melbourne City
6.50 1.22 6.00 41.00
Brisbane Roar
11.00 1.65 14.00 21.00
Western Sydney Wanderers
12.00 1.75 16.00 21.00
Adelaide United
15.00 2.15 21.00 13.00
Newcastle Jets 
                                                                                                                            15.00 2.15 21.00 13.00
Western United
15.00 2.15 21.00 13.00
Central Coast Mariners
23.00 3.00 41.00 3.50
Wellington Phoenix
51.00 5.00 101.00  1.60

 

Sportsbet

Only a Grand Final & Smurfs to go through undefeated (wankfest) market available atm 

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/soccer/australia/australian-a-league/a-league-2019-2020-outright-winner-4673588

Top odds -  $13 available about WSW to win the GF 

 

You can follow any changes in the various markets here:  http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=5

 

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A site that is useful  to compare odds is aussportsbetting.com

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IN relation to the FFA Cup futures markets, WSW have firmed from as much as $21 / $23 into as low as $5 / $5.50 now, with most agencies.

So happy days to all of us that are already on, but lets see if there's still a potential earn in the normal match markets for our game v's City at AAMI in 10 days.

Let's compare the four main agencies again. 

 

TAB

FFA Cup winner - $ N/A

https://www.tab.com.au/sports/betting/Soccer/competitions/Australia FFA Cup

City $1,90 Draw $3.75 WSW $3.30 

IMO, $3.30 is very good odds, but not the top price available atm 

 

Bet 365

FFA Cup winner - $5.00

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B1/C1/D13/E43157826/F2/

City $1.80 Draw $3.60 WSW - $3.60

Top Odds - $3.60 is 30c in the dollar better price than any other outlet currently. Jump on that price hard for us to win within 90 minutes, as it has to shorten.

 

Bet Easy 

FFA Cup winner - $5.50

https://beteasy.com.au/sports-betting/soccer/australia/ffa-cup-matches

City $1.95 Draw $3.60 WSW $3.30

* They appear keen to lay City within 90 minutes. $3,30 is still a very good price about WSW.

* WSW at $5.50 is the best outright winner price i can locate atm 

 

Sportsbet 

FFA Cup winner - $4.33

https://www.sportsbet.com.au/betting/soccer

City $2.00 Draw $3.75 WSW $2.88

* They are taking City on at the top odds of even money, but have WSW very short compared to other agencies atm.

 

You can follow any changes to the markets here http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=2081

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Quote

Awesome thread 

So........this is what it takes to lure forumites to the Off Topic Threads, is it?  :lol: :lol:

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2 hours ago, wendybr said:

So........this is what it takes to lure forumites to the Off Topic Threads, is it?  :lol: :lol:

I bet it is.

Edited by WHACKO

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5 minutes ago, WHACKO said:

I bet it is.

 :huh:

But but....there's been a perfectly good Not Politics Thread here for ages!  :pardon:

And an Animals Thread!

What's wrong with them?  

 

:D :D

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You can't bet on them. If we can find a winner all the better.

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17 hours ago, wendybr said:

 :huh:

But but....there's been a perfectly good Not Politics Thread here for ages!  :pardon:

And an Animals Thread!

What's wrong with them?  

 

:D :D

:sad:

Please don't derail this thread like you peeps have done with all the other non politics or food threads.

It just too hard to follow, if there are 'too many' irrelevant posts, which don't add to our potential wealth. 

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On 08/09/2019 at 1:10 PM, Taurus said:

Bet 365

FFA Cup winner - $5.00

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B1/C1/D13/E43157826/F2/

City $1.80 Draw $3.60 WSW - $3.60

Top Odds - $3.60 is 30c in the dollar better price than any other outlet currently. Jump on that price hard for us to win within 90 minutes, as it has to shorten.

 

You can follow any changes to the markets here http://odds.aussportsbetting.com/betting?competitionid=2081

Can't believe we have eased to $4.00 to beat City in the FFA Cup game.

What are they thinking? 

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B1/C1/D13/E43157826/F2/

 

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Got a nice little $15 on WSW to win the FFA Cup at $23 for a $345 return. 

Also put $30 on a WSW GF win at $14 for a return of $420. 

I'm liking my bets at the moment. Both cash out options are equal or more than my original outlays ATM, so I could go out while I'm ahead if I want :P 

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So Im part of a punting group and the organiser sends out tips backed by his analysis. I'm not sure what "his analysis" entails, but it seems legit. The odds average range from $1.50-180 from my observations. I'll share them here so feel free to use at your own risk!

English National North League

Spennymoor vs Blyth Spartans 
Kick off: 7:45pm BST
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.725
Stake: 1u

- Between both teams, both have just one win between them after their games played. 
- Of the three home games played, Spennymoor have scored in each and featured at least three match goals. 
- After eight games played, Spennymoor have conceded an average of 2.33 goals per game, conceding twice in four. 
- Blyth sit rock bottom and have conceded twice in six of their nine games played.
- The visitors are yet to win a game this season after nine games played.
- Last season both were great for three match goals and each of the last five meetings saw both teams score and three goals.
 

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So for all the betting mathematicians.....what would the odds be to correctly pick 5 from 5 for 26 rounds...?

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3 hours ago, CaptainJess said:

Got a nice little $15 on WSW to win the FFA Cup at $23 for a $345 return. 

Also put $30 on a WSW GF win at $14 for a return of $420. 

I'm liking my bets at the moment. Both cash out options are equal or more than my original outlays ATM, so I could go out while I'm ahead if I want :P 

Play the long game on both tickets. 

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1 hour ago, sonar said:

So for all the betting mathematicians.....what would the odds be to correctly pick 5 from 5 for 26 rounds...?

I'm no statistician but I would have thought that if each game has three outcomes (home win, draw, away win), each outcome has an equal chance (1 in 3) and there are 130 games (5x26) it would be 1 in 3^130, or 1 in 10^62.

Gamble responsibly.

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23 hours ago, Taurus said:

Can't believe we have eased to $4.00 to beat City in the FFA Cup game.

What are they thinking? 

https://www.bet365.com.au/#/AC/B1/C1/D13/E43157826/F2/

 

That didn't last long, back into $3.80, but still huge overs.

Hope some of our lurkers got on at the top odds

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2 hours ago, sonar said:

So for all the betting mathematicians.....what would the odds be to correctly pick 5 from 5 for 26 rounds...?

For a $1 Retirement

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Interesting, our next opponents got rolled by Tarneit FC today.

 
Full time here at the CFA; run out 2-1 winners over . Own goal from City cancelled out by Najjarine in the first half before Yuel won it for United with a second half goal. #ALeague

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Looks to me like WSW supporters have stepped in over recent days & shortened up our odds with Bet Easy to win the Premiers Plate, from $16 into $9, whilst we have drifted from $12 to $13 to win the dunny seat  #GoFigure #BetResponsibly

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17 hours ago, teddies said:

English National North League

Spennymoor vs Blyth Spartans 
Kick off: 7:45pm BST
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Odds: 1.725

Spennymoor 5 : Blyth 0

A Blyth red card in 13' helped with opening the floodgates.

Gamble responsibly.

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MLS

Real Salt Lake vs San Jose  
Kick off: 11:30am
Bets: BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (multi)
Odds: 1.83

Brief:
- Salt Lake have managed to score in thirteen of their fourteen matches played, at an average of 1.93 goals per game.
- 80% of San Jose games have featured at least three match goals.
- In their away games, eleven of their thirteen have featured at least three goals.
- Breaking those games down, they’ve scored in eleven of those games and conceded in twelve (at an average of 2.00 goals).  
- Reports suggest Real Salt Lake will be missing key players so a San Jose result is possible.

This bet won't change your life. #BetResponsibly
 

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What's the level of interest amongst forumities, in regards to an ALeague (CASH) tipping comp?

Pup55 ran one a few seasons back & whilst being a P.I.T.A to administer in the initial stages, it appeared to be well patronised.

Here's a link to the previous thread.

If you're keen to participate in an ALeague (CASH) tipping competition, run along similar lines this season, please reply with #In below & I will monitor the responces & potentially do the preparation work for a competition. Get cracking the AL starts in approx one month. 

 

Edit: I think I'll start a separate Tipping Comp thread so we keep the clutter away from this thread 

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@teddies your tipping license, has been suspended for 72 hours.

Result: RSL 1 - SL 0. 

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6 hours ago, Taurus said:

@teddies your tipping license, has been suspended for 72 hours.

Result: RSL 1 - SL 0. 

Do as I say, not as I tip :lol:

J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 
Kick off: 8.30pm
Over 0.5 Second Half Urawa Reds Goals (risky)
Odds: 1.95

Brief:
- Urawa have not seen a clean sheet in eight matches and a win in six.
- Visitors Osaka have scored twice in each of the last three games but...
- When they concede goals, 90% of been scored against them in the second half of games.

The only safe bet is not betting at all. #GambleResponsibly

 

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2 minutes ago, teddies said:

Do as I say, not as I tip :lol:

J1 League
Urawa Reds vs Cerezo Osaka 
Kick off: 8.30pm
Over 0.5 Second Half Urawa Reds Goals (risky)
Odds: 1.95

Brief:
- Urawa have not seen a clean sheet in eight matches and a win in six.
- Visitors Osaka have scored twice in each of the last three games but...
- When they concede goals, 90% of been scored against them in the second half of games.

The only safe bet is not betting at all. #GambleResponsibly

 

Does this relate to WSW in some way? 

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