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Armageddon Thread

marron

By marron
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Davo

Davo

Posted
Posted
12 hours ago, Prydzopolis said:

I think this is the worry with kids being at home. Kids locked inside (my 17 month year old is turning into monster being stuck in our unit), so easy to just take them out to the shops for a while or let them spend some time with friends. They need to get out. Looks like it may require more stringent measures before finally some might start to take things seriously.

A few notes:

- If you lose your sense of smell but have no symptoms it may be an early warning you have c19 - https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-25/coronavirus-loss-of-smell-covid-19-symptom/12087948

- When do I need to wear a face mask? Unless you’re sick, please don’t wear, save them for the front line health workers - https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-face-mask-surgical-mask-protection/12088314

- Some ideas to keep kids content inside during lockdown - https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-school-children-staying-home-during-pandemic-data/12088692

- Data on c19, latest figures and charts - https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-stay-home-chart/12084144

My cousin in England has the virus (relatively young and mild symptoms so should be fine, currently quarantined at home) and he said he lost his sense of smell and taste. I've read a few accounts of people having the same issue who have recovered and they say it all starts to come back in about a week, so it doesn't seem to be permanent.

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Flytox

Flytox

Posted
Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, wendybr said:

Member of coronavirus advisory panel urges Government to 'go hard, go now' on lockdown
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/australia-needs-coronavirus-lockdown-now-expert-says/12088348

 

Yet another body who recommends going hard.

But what would they know?

We had the opportunity to watch and learn, from the rest of the world, but we are not an intelligent country. Where everywhere else us doing it, why do we think we're different?

You wouldn't have to lock down everywhere...but on the East coast, I think we need to.

That committee is one of a number who advise the AHPPC but it is the AHPPC that considers all the advice and gives its decisions to advise the National cabinet.  We aren't unique in the strategy that we have followed but in general we have increased restrictions earlier than they have in most places overseas.  Looking at the infection and death statistics available we are doing comparatively well compared to other western countries bar Canada which is slightly better than us at the moment, but we need to understand that in most cases we are comparing to countries that are further along on the curve.  We could be where they are in 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 weeks depending on which country you are looking at.

This link is to the CMO's 25 March statement.

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6818686-Statement-From-CMO-Prof-Brendan-Murphy-to-7-30.html

Edited by Flytox
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CaptainJess

CaptainJess

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, Flytox said:

This is the best explanation of what has been done in key countries and comparing them to Australia.  It is worth the read and the graphs and the way they are used in the discussion are excellent.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-26/coronavirus-covid19-global-spread-data-explained/12089028

This was quite interesting. 

However I keep coming back to the graph right at the end. If 80-90% of us socially distance appropriately, this could be under control in 50 days. 

This just demonstrates to me that if we go hard with a 4 week lock down now, then we could really nip this in the bud. I don't get this rhetoric from the Government that whatever we implement will have to stay around months on end. Surely if you go hard now and then slowly ease back restrictions over the following weeks we would all be better off. I don't get the whole go slowly thing now and wait and see. We won't know if what we did over the past week will have any affect until two or three weeks down the track.

If it's worst case scenario, we're already behind the ball and then will have to try and play catch-up which will drag things out even longer. 

Go a four week lockdown. After that, scale back to level 3 restrictions for two or three weeks. Then if everything is fine, reduce to level 2 and so on. It is going to take months, but I think the way we are going about things is going to extend this unnecessarily. 

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Flytox

Flytox

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

This was quite interesting. 

However I keep coming back to the graph right at the end. If 80-90% of us socially distance appropriately, this could be under control in 50 days. 

This just demonstrates to me that if we go hard with a 4 week lock down now, then we could really nip this in the bud. I don't get this rhetoric from the Government that whatever we implement will have to stay around months on end. Surely if you go hard now and then slowly ease back restrictions over the following weeks we would all be better off. I don't get the whole go slowly thing now and wait and see. We won't know if what we did over the past week will have any affect until two or three weeks down the track.

If it's worst case scenario, we're already behind the ball and then will have to try and play catch-up which will drag things out even longer. 

Go a four week lockdown. After that, scale back to level 3 restrictions for two or three weeks. Then if everything is fine, reduce to level 2 and so on. It is going to take months, but I think the way we are going about things is going to extend this unnecessarily. 

There was a professor in Victoria the other day that had modelled the full lockdown strategy that "eliminated" the virus and he was arguing for that but what he acknowledged was that then we would require total isolation from the rest of the world until a vaccine had been developed.  He did say that we might be able to restart trade with selected countries that had the virus under control after the lockdown but we could not allow entry by foreigners or travel and return from Australia.

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CaptainJess

CaptainJess

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Flytox said:

There was a professor in Victoria the other day that had modelled the full lockdown strategy that "eliminated" the virus and he was arguing for that but what he acknowledged was that then we would require total isolation from the rest of the world until a vaccine had been developed.  He did say that we might be able to restart trade with selected countries that had the virus under control after the lockdown but we could not allow entry by foreigners or travel and return from Australia.

To be honest, I think people would prefer this model. Go hard, get it under control here so we can return to a somewhat fairly normal existence here where most people can have their jobs back.

If it meant that people can't travel or holiday overseas for a year, then I think most people would take that option right now. I certainly would. And if you have to travel (and have an exemption) you are required to isolate in a set area on your return. None of this self-isolate bullshit. Or if they isolate at home, constant police checks and mobile data checks like in Singapore should be the absolute minimum. 

Yes the tourism industry and those who rely on it would be hit hard, but I'd take that over the thousands of restaurant, cafe, massage palour, cinema etc. workers we have out of a job now. Prop up tourism industry for a while, get people to holiday in Australia and get the economy moving. 

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Carns

Carns

Posted
Posted
Quote
When he was speaking earlier, Victoria Police Chief Graham Ashton was asked about the case of an employee who falsely claimed they had been diagnosed with COVID-19, which sparked the evacuation of National Australia Bank's headquarters in the Melbourne CBD.

Mr Ashton didn't mince his words.

"He was a dickhead, clearly. Of course I stand by that advice," he said.
 
"It's not a crime to be a dickhead but it's a time for common sense."

There you go folks. Don't be a dickhead.

I love this country sometimes.

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Carns

Carns

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

To be honest, I think people would prefer this model. Go hard, get it under control here so we can return to a somewhat fairly normal existence here where most people can have their jobs back.

If it meant that people can't travel or holiday overseas for a year, then I think most people would take that option right now. I certainly would. And if you have to travel (and have an exemption) you are required to isolate in a set area on your return. None of this self-isolate bullshit. Or if they isolate at home, constant police checks and mobile data checks like in Singapore should be the absolute minimum. 

Yes the tourism industry and those who rely on it would be hit hard, but I'd take that over the thousands of restaurant, cafe, massage palour, cinema etc. workers we have out of a job now. Prop up tourism industry for a while, get people to holiday in Australia and get the economy moving. 

Never underestimate the selfishness of an individual. All you have to do is look at how many people are still flaunting the current rules (admittedly this is not helped by the terrible messaging and at times knee jerk reactions).

I agree with you though. Surely Australians could be encouraged to holiday at home for an extended period to protect our community long term.

It's all very interesting the challenges that arise through being such a global community nowadays (for better or worse).

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CaptainJess

CaptainJess

Posted
Posted (edited)

I don't really think people are going to have an option in the end. I can't realistically see anyway we can open our borders back up to anyone given how it's going in places like America and most of Europe. Unless other countries who have it under control have the exact same restrictions we do, it's going to be impossible. 

The US is a ****-fight and so is most of Europe. You might be able to open back up to places like New Zealand, Fiji, Vanuatu, Singapore etc. but they would also need to block people from hot-spots. 

Wouldn't put it past #ScottyFromMarketing opening our borders with the US again before it's under control because the orange man-child chucked a tantrum that people were restricting them. 

Edited by CaptainJess
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Taurus

Taurus

Posted
Posted
Fine them the maximum & lock them up. 
 
 
 
Victoria Police has revealed seven people were not home during the random #COVID19 self-isolation spot checks conducted by officers today. #9News
2:16 PM · Mar 26, 2020·TweetDeck
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JackDoff

JackDoff

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Taurus said:
Fine them the maximum & lock them up. 
 
 
 
Victoria Police has revealed seven people were not home during the random #COVID19 self-isolation spot checks conducted by officers today. #9News
2:16 PM · Mar 26, 2020·TweetDeck

Fuuck it , just shoot them as Bio Terrorists  :nono:

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Sithslayer1991

Sithslayer1991

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CaptainJess said:

This was quite interesting. 

However I keep coming back to the graph right at the end. If 80-90% of us socially distance appropriately, this could be under control in 50 days. 

This just demonstrates to me that if we go hard with a 4 week lock down now, then we could really nip this in the bud. I don't get this rhetoric from the Government that whatever we implement will have to stay around months on end. Surely if you go hard now and then slowly ease back restrictions over the following weeks we would all be better off. I don't get the whole go slowly thing now and wait and see. We won't know if what we did over the past week will have any affect until two or three weeks down the track.

If it's worst case scenario, we're already behind the ball and then will have to try and play catch-up which will drag things out even longer. 

Go a four week lockdown. After that, scale back to level 3 restrictions for two or three weeks. Then if everything is fine, reduce to level 2 and so on. It is going to take months, but I think the way we are going about things is going to extend this unnecessarily. 

Singapore and Japan look to be heading that way slowly relaxing based on the stats. But I honestly do not have enough faith that Aussies will follow this and just be silly which makes the lockdown go longer. NZ seem to really have it down at the moment and probably will be clear in that time frame

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Flytox

Flytox

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CaptainJess said:

To be honest, I think people would prefer this model. Go hard, get it under control here so we can return to a somewhat fairly normal existence here where most people can have their jobs back.

If it meant that people can't travel or holiday overseas for a year, then I think most people would take that option right now. I certainly would. And if you have to travel (and have an exemption) you are required to isolate in a set area on your return. None of this self-isolate bullshit. Or if they isolate at home, constant police checks and mobile data checks like in Singapore should be the absolute minimum. 

Yes the tourism industry and those who rely on it would be hit hard, but I'd take that over the thousands of restaurant, cafe, massage palour, cinema etc. workers we have out of a job now. Prop up tourism industry for a while, get people to holiday in Australia and get the economy moving. 

Exports and imports produce 43% of our GDP so without them we are going to be a very poor country with very high unemployment for the 12 month quarantine period.

The advantage of the heavy social distancing is that international trade can start much earlier and the number of cases ongoing is minimal.

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Smoggy

Smoggy

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, CaptainJess said:

To be honest, I think people would prefer this model. Go hard, get it under control here so we can return to a somewhat fairly normal existence here where most people can have their jobs back.

If it meant that people can't travel or holiday overseas for a year, then I think most people would take that option right now. I certainly would. And if you have to travel (and have an exemption) you are required to isolate in a set area on your return. None of this self-isolate bullshit. Or if they isolate at home, constant police checks and mobile data checks like in Singapore should be the absolute minimum. 

Yes the tourism industry and those who rely on it would be hit hard, but I'd take that over the thousands of restaurant, cafe, massage palour, cinema etc. workers we have out of a job now. Prop up tourism industry for a while, get people to holiday in Australia and get the economy moving. 

Boris in the UK intially went down the 'flatten the curve route' which means it is extended over a longer period but the peak is lower and so less pressure on the health service.

What he seems to be doing now however is ramping up the NHS with volunteers, creating a make shift hospital out of i think a convention centre and getting all the supplies together he can whilst also ramping up the stay at home policies.

Boris is going to take a higher peak sooner and get over with sooner policy based on what he is trying to do with the NHS.

I have no idea what our plan is other than to try and copy a mix of other countries policies badly...

Boris think he can do this in 12 weeks....

Edited by Smoggy
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wendybr

wendybr

Posted
Posted
54 minutes ago, Sithslayer1991 said:

Singapore and Japan look to be heading that way slowly relaxing based on the stats. But I honestly do not have enough faith that Aussies will follow this and just be silly which makes the lockdown go longer. NZ seem to really have it down at the moment and probably will be clear in that time frame

I've never felt more strongly that we are the opposite of a "clever country".

We were sort of blessed by being behind other countries by a few weeks - and we had 2 sets of examples to observe and learn from. One  (Europe, US) was an example of what NOT to do, and the other - China and one or two Asian countries, examples of what to do.  Because they were operating from painful experience, and expertise.

And which did we choose? 

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Flytox

Flytox

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, wendybr said:

I've never felt more strongly that we are the opposite of a "clever country".

We were sort of blessed by being behind other countries by a few weeks - and we had 2 sets of examples to observe and learn from. One  (Europe, US) was an example of what NOT to do, and the other - China and one or two Asian countries, examples of what to do.  Because they were operating from painful experience, and expertise.

And which did we choose? 

Neither.

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