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Armageddon Thread

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Number of new cases in NSW has fallen for second consecutive day. Is this genuine or lack of testing.....:unknw: 

Perhaps ScoMo and Galdys could cross their fingers and luck their way through this yet.

If they get away with that it would be the equivalent of closing your eyes, crossing your fingers and humming a tune whilst hoping the disaster misses you.

Also for the first time the covid Australia chart has a kink towards level from its steep climb....

 

Edited by Smoggy

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3 hours ago, Smoggy said:

On SMH that flights for Aussies is SA will start from Peru soon. If he can head that way...

 

Got a link? can’t find it 

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11 hours ago, btron3000 said:

Dude. 

He’s in Ecuador at the moment, planning a daring escape. (Only a slight exaggeration).

While the government back here is talking about how they are doing all they can to help Aussies overseas, the reality is far from that.

Ecuador is in total lockdown, curfews and everything. You can go outside for food and medical only. Borders totally closed. The local authorities where he lives have said they aren’t reporting Covid cases anymore. There hasn’t been too many to date but that is scary.

He emailed the consulate and the response was “look for a commercial flight and try to stay safe”. No ****, they pretty much used those words.

So the Aussies over there (about 100 of them) all started to create WhatsApp groups just through knowing each other etc. At one point there was talk of a chartered plane to Santiago, then someone was in touch with the media trying to ramp up the pressure on the gov to bring them home. Still nothing.

Meanwhile, they all applied for and got given a “safe passage” document, which essentially allowed them to travel during curfew. So if the police or military pulled them over they could produce the papers to show they were allowed to be travelling.

Back home, someone from the office of immigration was on tv here saying how difficult it was to get people from certain countries, like Peru. Really? They (and the Ecuadorians) all had papers saying they could travel so all they needed was our government to pay for a Qantas flight (Qantas have a few staff with spare time, no?) and tell the Peruvian and Ecuadorian governments the time and they’d be out of there. Or even just organise it, most of the people were willing to pay stupid amounts.

So in the end the only (possible) way home is via the US. Yep, as one of our friends said, right through the belly of the beast.

He leaves Sat morning our time and is hopeful to be back here Monday. He’s gotta fly to somewhere, maybe Texas, then on to San Fran, then Sydney. The wait at San Fran is like 55 min so he’s assuming they’ll miss that. If **** goes sideways in the US, he will be with a handful of Aussies. So that’s reassuring.

So... yeah... we’ll see what happens.

Now the NEW ZEALAND government is offering spots to Aussies on a flight from Santiago. Seriously.

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12 minutes ago, btron3000 said:

Now the NEW ZEALAND government is offering spots to Aussies on a flight from Santiago. Seriously.

To be fair, the more people on the flight, the more cost effective it is. But at least some Government is looking out for our overseas citizens.

Curious whether they would have to quarantine in NZ or the flight will continue to AUS?

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13 minutes ago, Smoggy said:

Number of new cases in NSW has fallen for second consecutive day. Is this genuine or lack of testing.....:unknw: 

Perhaps ScoMo and Galdys could cross their fingers and luck their way through this yet.

If they get away with that it would be the equivalent of closing your eyes, crossing your fingers and humming a tune whilst hoping the disaster misses you.

Also for the first time the covid Australia chart has a kink towards level from its steep climb....

 

We've been one of the best countries for testing so I think it's evidence that the distancing measures are working.

I've been working from home for two weeks now and I know a lot of other businesses who have been doing the same. All major public events have been cancelled for weeks and all international travel has been stopped for over a week.

You'd have to think that these measures would slow things down. I read that the average lag from getting infected to getting a positive test is about 8 days, so we won't see the results of these measures for over a week.

This article looks at the data from China. Apparently they asked everyone there who tested positive some questions about when they first developed symptoms and when they thought they were infected. They could then build a retrospective graph of when people actually became new cases, as opposed to when they finally got a positive test. Gave them a good look back at how instantly effective the lockdown was. If I have some time I might try that method and see if it shows the impact of the different restrictions being implemented here.

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39 minutes ago, btron3000 said:

Now the NEW ZEALAND government is offering spots to Aussies on a flight from Santiago. Seriously.

Its been on the SMH coronavirus live feed this morning...was in headlines at top..

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42 minutes ago, btron3000 said:

Got a link? can’t find it 

Sorry..was meant to respond to this one...been on SHM live feed this morning.

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Its fantastic if numbers are falling. I think the media needs to be careful though as all it takes is a few stories like this and everyone will think it over and flood back to the beach..

If we see a day on day decrease over 2 weeks we can get more confident.

Edited by Smoggy

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Have seen from multiple sources on Twitter this morning that our testing rates in NSW went from 76,000+ to 90,000+ over the past day or two. I'm trying to find an official source for that info. But if true, that's a lot of testing and makes the fact numbers have dropped even better. They expanded the testing criteria slightly too a few days ago. We really need to see this sustained drop over a long period though. There's a tiny little skew to the right on a bunch of charts though. Even more so for states like WA, SA and TAS. 

If it does though, Gladys and ScoMo might have just pulled off the save of the lifetime without even really trying. Can you imagine? Even with the bungled cruise ship fiasco and the poor airport handling situation. 

 

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13 minutes ago, Smoggy said:

Its fantastic if numbers are falling. I think the media needs to be careful though as all it takes is a few stories like this and everyone will think it over and flood back to the beach..

If we see a day on day decrease over 2 weeks we can get more confident.

Yeah, media messaging needs to be really clear that a reduction in new cases doesn't mean it's over and we're all good. It means that all of these difficult measures we've taken are working and we need to keep them going.

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4 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

Have seen from multiple sources on Twitter this morning that our testing rates in NSW went from 76,000+ to 90,000+ over the past day or two. I'm trying to find an official source for that info. But if true, that's a lot of testing and makes the fact numbers have dropped even better. They expanded the testing criteria slightly too a few days ago. We really need to see this sustained drop over a long period though. There's a tiny little skew to the right on a bunch of charts though. Even more so for states like WA, SA and TAS. 

If it does though, Gladys and ScoMo might have just pulled off the save of the lifetime without even really trying. Can you imagine? Even with the bungled cruise ship fiasco and the poor airport handling situation. 

 

Iots of positive news floating around on nums today...lets see.

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https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/the-us-now-leads-the-world-in-confirmed-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB11LeJK?ocid=spartandhp

 

For now, at least, China has to contain the coronavirus with draconian measures. But the pathogen had embarked on a Grand Tour of most countries on Earth, with devastating epidemics in Iran, Italy, France.

 

 

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27 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

Have seen from multiple sources on Twitter this morning that our testing rates in NSW went from 76,000+ to 90,000+ over the past day or two. I'm trying to find an official source for that info. But if true, that's a lot of testing and makes the fact numbers have dropped even better. They expanded the testing criteria slightly too a few days ago. We really need to see this sustained drop over a long period though. There's a tiny little skew to the right on a bunch of charts though. Even more so for states like WA, SA and TAS. 

If it does though, Gladys and ScoMo might have just pulled off the save of the lifetime without even really trying. Can you imagine? Even with the bungled cruise ship fiasco and the poor airport handling situation. 

 

The Dept of Health daily situation report says in total we have done 181,000 tests across the country.  It is only a couple (?) of days ago it said 126,000.

The chart of new cases in that report looks good with 2 days in a row showing good drops.  It will be interesting what today's figure comes out as.

Edited by Flytox

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5 hours ago, Carns said:

To be fair, the more people on the flight, the more cost effective it is. But at least some Government is looking out for our overseas citizens.

Curious whether they would have to quarantine in NZ or the flight will continue to AUS?

Oh yeah it’s great someone is helping, but it’s amazing that another country’s gov has been more helpful to Aus citizens than we have.

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Say we get on top of it soon. What then?

I read that to get herd immunity we need 60% of people to get it. 

So do we continue to slowly ramp up going about our business, keeping away from the elderly and knowing the hospitals can help others who get it?

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1 hour ago, btron3000 said:

Oh yeah it’s great someone is helping, but it’s amazing that another country’s gov has been more helpful to Aus citizens than we have.

I'm not really surprised, tbh. Too expensive for Scotty to worry about (when he'd have to do it for all the other stranded citizens around the world). Would like to be proven wrong though.

A friend of mines dad has been stuck in Saudi Arabia (for work) for weeks. First available flight they were told is April 1 but apparently the dates keep shifting.

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3 hours ago, Flytox said:

The Dept of Health daily situation report says in total we have done 181,000 tests across the country.  It is only a couple (?) of days ago it said 126,000.

The chart of new cases in that report looks good with 2 days in a row showing good drops.  It will be interesting what today's figure comes out as.

Wouldn't this reflect what was started 1-2 weeks ago, though - ie before the cruise ships turned hundreds loose to scatter all over the country?

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2 hours ago, wendybr said:

Wouldn't this reflect what was started 1-2 weeks ago, though - ie before the cruise ships turned hundreds loose to scatter all over the country?

It does reflect the situation 1-2 weeks ago but there were 133 cases from that cruise ship in the numbers.  Since then we have increased social distancing requirements so they should be working to reduce the impact from the ship, return plane passengers and cases from the virus being in the community.

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Hands up we could have done a lot better maybe NZ have been the best...

Having said that we were the first country to declare a pandemic and I think the first to ban Chinese travel.

On a % basic we are either first or second in the testing... 

We have a low death rate ...

Biggest issue is F.......wits breaking distance rules like at beaches see Melbourne today... 

If we take out the ship stuff up our numbers when we compare are low for a country that had large numbers of Chinese transfers and holiday makers coming home.

Hand on heart not the other thing, Europe, America, there is not that many countries I would rather be in right now... 

This is meant in no way as an excuse for errors made by the government more to acknowledge its not total gloom & gloom..

 

 

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58 minutes ago, Midfielder said:

 

Biggest issue is F.......wits breaking distance rules like at beaches see Melbourne today... 

 

 

 

??

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7 hours ago, CaptainJess said:

Have seen from multiple sources on Twitter this morning that our testing rates in NSW went from 76,000+ to 90,000+ over the past day or two. I'm trying to find an official source for that info. But if true, that's a lot of testing and makes the fact numbers have dropped even better. They expanded the testing criteria slightly too a few days ago. We really need to see this sustained drop over a long period though. There's a tiny little skew to the right on a bunch of charts though. Even more so for states like WA, SA and TAS. 

If it does though, Gladys and ScoMo might have just pulled off the save of the lifetime without even really trying. Can you imagine? Even with the bungled cruise ship fiasco and the poor airport handling situation. 

 

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/news/Pages/2020-nsw-health.aspx

I look at this page every day like some mad man. Currently we have over 77k tests in NSW (as of yesterday). The day before was 74k.

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Here is a good page to look at each day: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ALl of our original cases and many of the more recent cases emerged from OS, people coming in from other places and on cruise ships (with people from OS...).  Happy Bum (Glad-ass) announced tonight that there are new cases that have arisen from unknown places within NSW - a first.  It is suggested that for every case discovered there are possibly 5 other cases. THe risk is that if our new numbers decrease measurably and we relax restrictions, will that just release the virus into the general population again.  So, when will it be safe to relax restrictions?  A mate who works in health also says 60% herd immunity would be a goal but how do you get there??  A vaccine seems a way off and that is the best option.  I don't think things will relax too soon, lest we regress very quickly.

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33 minutes ago, Wanderboy said:

??

Photos of hipsters by the gallon on St Kilda beach today.

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3 minutes ago, marron said:

Photos of hipsters by the gallon on St Kilda beach today.

Oh, ok.

Just like the stupid ****ers on Bondi Beach last week, eh? 

The brain-dead never learn.

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1 hour ago, BoyFromTheWest said:

Here is a good page to look at each day: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

ALl of our original cases and many of the more recent cases emerged from OS, people coming in from other places and on cruise ships (with people from OS...).  Happy Bum (Glad-ass) announced tonight that there are new cases that have arisen from unknown places within NSW - a first.  It is suggested that for every case discovered there are possibly 5 other cases. THe risk is that if our new numbers decrease measurably and we relax restrictions, will that just release the virus into the general population again.  So, when will it be safe to relax restrictions?  A mate who works in health also says 60% herd immunity would be a goal but how do you get there??  A vaccine seems a way off and that is the best option.  I don't think things will relax too soon, lest we regress very quickly.

The problem with this data is it ignores the fact we've only just begun testing for community transmission. All testing was of people belonging to this group so of course the data supported that hypothesis. 

It's extremely disappointing that the government is willing to use us as a sick science experiment in herd immunity when every other developed nation has taken a stronger approach more considerate of its peoples welfare and the general scientific consensus.

Evidence is there that you can knock the ass out of this virus in weeks and we're gonna piss fast around gradually letting everyone get sick because apparently our spineless leaders know better. 

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20 minutes ago, StillWandering said:

The problem with this data is it ignores the fact we've only just begun testing for community transmission. All testing was of people belonging to this group so of course the data supported that hypothesis. 

It's extremely disappointing that the government is willing to use us as a sick science experiment in herd immunity when every other developed nation has taken a stronger approach more considerate of its peoples welfare and the general scientific consensus.

Evidence is there that you can knock the ass out of this virus in weeks and we're gonna piss fast around gradually letting everyone get sick because apparently our spineless leaders know better. 

Where is this happening?  

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20 minutes ago, StillWandering said:

The problem with this data is it ignores the fact we've only just begun testing for community transmission. All testing was of people belonging to this group so of course the data supported that hypothesis. 

This is wrong

We have had community transmission for some time & NSW have been able to test more broadly than other states outside the strict guidelines.

27 minutes ago, StillWandering said:

It's extremely disappointing that the government is willing to use us as a sick science experiment in herd immunity

5 hours ago, btron3000 said:

I read that to get herd immunity we need 60% of people to get it. 

The issue is that no where is they’ve said that’s the state aim. The only position they’ve taken is that they want to “flatten the curve” to save as many lives. There is just too many unknowns with the virus in terms of immunity, how long does it last, will it come back again next year, will it mutate etc.

I feel that they’ve been very coy with modeling, protective equipment numbers, what is the actual end game? Maybe they are just trying to get us to the other side, short/medium term saving as many people as possible? 

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2 minutes ago, Prydzopolis said:

This is wrong

We have had community transmission for some time & NSW have been able to test more broadly than other states outside the strict guidelines.

This has not been happening until very recently. We have approximately 30 cases in our community and until today only people meeting the strict criteria have been tested.

 

51 minutes ago, Flytox said:

Where is this happening?  

China would be your best example but in general it would seem our Asian neighbours in general have taken a stronger approach towards the virus. Perhaps we could hope to emulate the South Koreans but I don't think our populace has the sensibility. 

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The southern hemisphere has been behind on this from the start. South Africa has just recoded its first death i believe and South America is prob a week or so behind us in general.

We are still learning about this virus but do wonder if it will becone a recurring winter virus.

As the nothern hemisphere warms up i wonder if there will be a major decrease and a ramp up in the southern.

Regardless of numbers if it is in the community we have a battle plus we are on the slide to the winter bug season which adds a level to our urgency in my opinion.

Edited by Smoggy

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