Armageddon Thread

[Prydzopolis]

12 hours ago, wendybr said:

"...actively thinking about ways of mask use into the future..."

Hmmmm.

Australians advised against wearing face masks, for now at least

The story here is around the proper use of masks, correctly fitted etc

For example: (1) If people reuse  gloves or masks, they run an increased level of catching c19 because of exposure (2) Those not used to wearing masks can develop a skin irritation which can leave you at higher risk of infection (3) Surgical masks don’t provide a seal, they don’t provide the safety a n95 mask provide (4) Unless you’ve got the proper training on how to fit a n95 mask in order to get a seal, it can be as useless as a surgical mask.

There are more risks over incorrect use leading to higher rates of infection. Maybe if we get to the point where the whole nation can get access to single use PPE then it could be introduced widely? Even then I’d say cost would be prohibitive (can we produce enough n95 masks so everyone could use one, once a day but keep in mind the filter lasts 4 hours). 20m people x 365 days x 2 per day?

We don’t have enough single use PPE for our hospital system, let alone the general public.

12 hours ago, wendybr said:

Secondly, if it's considered essential for healthcare workers,

Why is it necessary for healthcare worker? These are saved for workers who are dealing with confirmed or suspected c19 patients.

Transmission of c19 occurs when you spend more than 15 minutes of close contact with patients. The patients in hospital are usually at the peak of infection when their bodies have the highest concentration of c19 in their bodies, which they disperse via respiratory droplets. Each time they leave the ward, they need to dispose of all PPE & regown up when they enter again (think meetings, toilet, breaks if they get them etc).

They are also used for patients who are at high risk, say cancer patients who are undergoing treatment, as doctors are mindful of not passing on germs to these patients whose immune systems are compromised. 

This is why they need as much PPE as possible. It isn’t all healthcare workers either, just limited to specific situations.

12 hours ago, wendybr said:

If our experts say "Masks are desperately needed in hospitals, and everyone else should just stay at home," that makes sense to me.

It's a mish mash of ideas coming through

Translation: why shouldn’t we be wearing masks & gloves when we go out into the general public

Why could the advice change? If we have a situation where we have widespread community transmission then I can see why the advice will change in the future.

Lets take New York, they’ve got widespread community transmission (in fact you could say the same for most of America) and its out of control. In this situation they are trying to prevent people from transmitting their own respiratory droplets in the community & almost treating everyone as if they all have it. Cloth masks can be really dangerous & bring home viruses from the outside world. You need to be careful.

Are we at that stage? No, we have a few hot spots where their is community transmission like hospitals that have it & other places where people aren’t following social distancing. It isn’t widespread & that’s why it might change in the future.

12 hours ago, wendybr said:

As the societies who must surely know the most about these outbreaks, why wouldn't the Asian nations also be best placed to know about what is a potentially worthwhile protective measure??? They aren't idiots.

The issue is that the evidence around masks is inconclusive, there is no confirmation that use of masks in general everyday use for healthy people is beneficial (also refer to yesterday’s article. This comes from the world health organization, I’d say the global health leader on this matter. This is the same advice they used in Signapore, where they don’t recommend masks for healthy people (see cartoon below).

I’d like to know in countries that recommend mask use everyday, whether they are an evidence based approach when it comes to these decisions. For example, the CDC in US, what is the reason they are wearing masks? Is it to stop catching covid or is it to stop the spread of your own respiratory droplets? Evidence they are using to base their decision?

13 hours ago, wendybr said:

So much contradictory material around isn't there?

Throw in that it is such a unique situation that we haven’t faced as a society since the Spanish flu in 1918, there is always going to be different approaches & inconsistencies as we all try to grapple with an unknown like c19.

[wendybr]

All good points Prydz - very good, and food for thought.

I will defer to your research around this matter.

One last thing I will say, though, is that I've heard from at least 3 televised sources - but can't quite recall who (one was from the UK, maybe even BJ?, one was from one or our health people in a TV update/interview, and I'm pretty sure one was from Jacinta Adern) that everyone should act as if they have it.

Now it could be that THAT advice was targeted at, and is appropriate for the UK/Europe/US, rather than us at this stage...although prevention is better than a cure, as they say.

 

[StringerBellend]

55 minutes ago, luisenrique said:

Every day a nurse calls to check up on me...that's about all I got now

Uniforms though 

[Edinburgh]

2 hours ago, wendybr said:

Well ...I could!  

Most people here probably don't remember the WSF scarf opportunity.

Hahaha! 

Mack might still have a few that were never collected

[Prydzopolis]

A collection of the most recent research papers released in the last week in relation to c19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2020-04-05/coronavirus-research-preprints-summary/12107112
 

14 hours ago, Prydzopolis said:

The majority of the evidence shows that children get the virus from their parents rather than other children (almost flying in the face of what we know from most colds & flus). It’s the main reason why the AHPPC haven’t recommended we close schools & childcare’s.

It includes a paper which reinforces this point in regards to children to children transmission which is different than the swine flu outbreak in 2009.

[Flytox]

We've gone past midnight GMT so worldometers has updated their stats so I have used their stats to update my spreadsheet.  They also have updated each country so that all have the charts.  I have started to expand the number of countries I chart and so far I have 30 countries in my spreadsheet.

Of the 30 countries 18 have more cases than us, another 8 or so will pass our curve soon and 3 appear on the face of it to be "doing better" than us.  These are Norway, Malaysia and New Zealand.  Norway has done 19,000 tests per 1m population while we have done 11,000 so their stats should be reliable but they are creeping up on our curve.  Malaysia has only done 1,500 so their stats are fairly dubious.  Of the 30 countries only Brazil has a lower rate of testing.  New Zealand has done 6,800 tests per 1m population which is at the lower end of the countries that have done bulk testing.  It appears that only New Zealand will end up will their curve being better than ours.

I will expand the number of countries on my spreadsheet as there are quite a number with much lower figures than ours that are whizzing up towards us.

I remember Albo having a shot at the Government about us not following South Korea's example.  It appears that if we keep on with following the social distancing requirements we will end up with our curve tracking along the same as theirs but with us having about 3-3,500 less cases.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Flytox

[wendybr]

36 minutes ago, Flytox said:

We've gone past midnight GMT so worldometers has updated their stats so I have used their stats to update my spreadsheet.  They also have updated each country so that all have the charts.  I have started to expand the number of countries I chart and so far I have 30 countries in my spreadsheet.

Of the 30 countries 18 have more cases than us, another 8 or so will pass our curve soon and 3 appear on the face of it to be "doing better" than us.  These are Norway, Malaysia and New Zealand.  Norway has done 19,000 tests per 1m population while we have done 11,000 so their stats should be reliable but they are creeping up on our curve.  Malaysia has only done 1,500 so their stats are fairly dubious.  Of the 30 countries only Brazil has a lower rate of testing.  New Zealand has done 6,800 tests per 1m population which is at the lower end of the countries that have done bulk testing.  It appears that only New Zealand will end up will their curve being better than ours.

I will expand the number of countries on my spreadsheet as there are quite a number with much lower figures than ours that are whizzing up towards us.

I remember Albo having a shot at the Government about us not following South Korea's example.  It appears that if we keep on with following the social distancing requirements we will end up with our curve tracking along the same as theirs but with us having about 3-3,500 less cases.

Thanks Flytox!

Sweden is going very badly, I heard on Insiders this morning?

[Prydzopolis]

38 minutes ago, Flytox said:

We've gone past midnight GMT so worldometers has updated their stats so I have used their stats to update my spreadsheet.

Very interesting data Tox, thanks for sharing

One thing we will hit our numbers is the crew on the cruise ships. Looks like their are discussions behind the scenes to get these crew off the ships, into sydney hotels & our hospital system if needed. We will see a hit to our numbers & most definite spike when this happens.

[Flytox]

1 hour ago, wendybr said:

Thanks Flytox!

Sweden is going very badly, I heard on Insiders this morning?

Sweden was below our curve but in the last 5 days their case numbers have accelerated to twice ours per day so they have moved above us.

There has been a number of countries that have been going along consistently and have then accelerated away again.  I don't know the reasons but it is something that we should look out for.  It concerns me that there are starting to be calls to ease back on our restrictions.

[Prydzopolis]

2 hours ago, wendybr said:

One last thing I will say, though, is that I've heard from at least 3 televised sources - but can't quite recall who (one was from the UK, maybe even BJ?, one was from one or our health people in a TV update/interview, and I'm pretty sure one was from Jacinta Adern) that everyone should act as if they have it.

It is good advice, as social distancing not only protects yourself but others too.

One of the crazy aspect of this virus is that it takes so long from when you catch it to when you show symptoms. That means that you can go 7-10 days without showing symptoms or worse, be asymptomatic whilst being infectious.

You can never be too careful especially if you are in contact with those of our society who are vulnerable. I’ve got my someone who undergoing cancer treatment & another who suffers from heart, kidney & lung issues, we need to be so careful.

[Smoggy]

Some good public comments in the smh live feed at the moment on why the numbers are shyte and why the down to 4% headline is misleading and could lead to complacency. 

[Flytox]

11 minutes ago, Smoggy said:

Some good public comments in the smh live feed at the moment on why the numbers are shyte and why the down to 4% headline is misleading and could lead to complacency. 

That the number of new cases is going down is a good thing but we will need to get used to the fact that it won't go away until we get R0 < 1.  i.e., an infectious person passes the disease on to less than 1 person during their infectious period.  R0 is said to be 2 to 2.5 for Covid 19 and of the 3 factors used to calculate it, infectious period, contact rate and mode of transmission, we can only affect contact rate hence the need to keep a tight hold with social distancing for the duration of the pandemic.

If we stabilise to similar to South Korea it will mean 50+ new cases per day and 5-10 deaths per day as the norm.

[wendybr]

5-10 deaths per day?? Really? 

 

[Davo]

41 minutes ago, wendybr said:

5-10 deaths per day?? Really? 

 

Those numbers are tragic but for context, the US averaged nearly one death per minute yesterday.

[Flytox]

1 hour ago, wendybr said:

5-10 deaths per day?? Really? 

 

Thats what they are getting in China and South Korea.  We might get a bit lower but this side of getting there it is unknown.  It is the sort of losses we get in a bad flu season.  Oh and by the way cases appear to be rising in Japan at the moment.  I'll have to keep an eye on that because it was one of the countries held up as a model to follow.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Flytox

[Smoggy]

33 minutes ago, Davo said:

Those numbers are tragic but for context, the US averaged nearly one death per minute yesterday.

Every death has a life story and a family left behind.

Comparing numbers is neither here nor there in that way....

A comment on the smh last week summed Sydney up for me...'if we finish top of the league and be the best we will be seen as a safe haven and make lots of money out of this'. 

That is Sydney right there....

Edited April 5, 2020 by Smoggy

[wendybr]

22 minutes ago, Flytox said:

Thats what they are getting in China and South Korea.  We might get a bit lower but this side of getting there it is unknown.  It is the sort of losses we get in a bad flu season.  Oh and by the way cases appear to be rising in Japan at the moment.  I'll have to keep an eye on that because it was one of the countries held up as a model to follow.

Thank you -  I didn't "Like" your reply, but I appreciate it.

[Prydzopolis]

3 hours ago, wendybr said:

5-10 deaths per day?? Really? 

We are living in strange times when statements like these are a good thing (or better than the alternative).

5 hours ago, Smoggy said:

Some good public comments in the smh live feed at the moment on why the numbers are shyte and why the down to 4% headline is misleading

You’ve got to think, the numbers we have seen today are a result of measures & actions taken two weeks ago. Time (another two weeks we) will find out whether things are working via the rate of new cases daily. All it does show is that people can’t comprehend the magnitude of events if police need to take these actions

If someone needs reminding, show them this: The exponential growth of coronavirus can be explained by rice on a chessboard. And we should be worried - https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-05/coronavirus-exponential-growth-explained-by-rice-on-a-chessboard/12122214

[Burztur]

I would like to see our search criteria expand so we can test the community transmissions figures since it is skewed toward international travellers.

Its only until we have a true grasp of those numbers before we can consider relaxing the restrictions. I think we’re in this for up to 6 months though...

[Smoggy]

3 hours ago, Flytox said:

Thats what they are getting in China and South Korea.  We might get a bit lower but this side of getting there it is unknown.  It is the sort of losses we get in a bad flu season.  Oh and by the way cases appear to be rising in Japan at the moment.  I'll have to keep an eye on that because it was one of the countries held up as a model to follow.

Singapore has also just had it biggest daily rise, which I guess they seen coming when the shut the schools.

Edited April 5, 2020 by Smoggy

[CaptainJess]

9 hours ago, wendybr said:

Thanks Flytox!

Sweden is going very badly, I heard on Insiders this morning?

If you look at my post from Friday, you’ll see a few articles. They pretty much kept everything open and from the looks of it, are going down the very risky herd immunity route. 

I would assume the reasons the numbers exploded was that they started testing properly again after stopping it for everyone bar high risk patients a while ago. 

From what I’ve heard quoted by the Swedish leaders, they are more worried about the economic and social impacts rather than the health aspects. They might change their tune soon though

[wendybr]

4 hours ago, Smoggy said:

Every death has a life story and a family left behind.

Comparing numbers is neither here nor there in that way....

A comment on the smh last week summed Sydney up for me...'if we finish top of the league and be the best we will be seen as a safe haven and make lots of money out of this'. 

That is Sydney right there....

Ughh!

Hope not!

[CaptainJess]

10 hours ago, Edinburgh said:

Mack might still have a few that were never collected

It was Balks who organised and distributed the scarfs. 

There’s still a couple in a drawer somewhere around the house. I may be able to organise one for a steep price 

[wendybr]

5 hours ago, Flytox said:

Thats what they are getting in China and South Korea.  We might get a bit lower but this side of getting there it is unknown.  It is the sort of losses we get in a bad flu season.  Oh and by the way cases appear to be rising in Japan at the moment.  I'll have to keep an eye on that because it was one of the countries held up as a model to follow.

They unlock Wuhan this week?

A friend from China (who lives here) sent me this, and said that people all over the rest of China felt "so so, sorry" for the people of Wuhan for being locked down/blocked off from the rest of China.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/coronavirus-china-national-mourning-wuhan-beijing-qingming-a9447276.html

[Edinburgh]

7 hours ago, CaptainJess said:

It was Balks who organised and distributed the scarfs. 

There’s still a couple in a drawer somewhere around the house. I may be able to organise one for a steep price 

Ha! That was my first thought! And then I changed it for some senile reason.

[Davo]

Boris Johnson has been transferred to hospital for "precautionary tests".

[wendybr]

But but....it's no different to flu!! 

He said he'd had a fever for days in the last statement from him I saw - which in itself is a dangerous state of affairs.

Extraordinary to have the future monarch and the PM of a nations afflicted. It surely should send a message - that it's serious....even though there are still those protesting that  "It's a conspiracy - with the world is being brought to its knees by nothing more than the flu."

[WSWJACK]

Binged thru the Sunderland till i die on Netflix yesterday, not my team but found it absorbing viewing as a football fan, such a kick in the belly that season for them, seems it all went tits up when they lost their striker in January for them.

The thing that stood out for me was dealing with the players agents, bunch of shylocks the lot of them.

[rcfinc]

9 minutes ago, WSWJACK said:

Binged thru the Sunderland till i die on Netflix yesterday, not my team but found it absorbing viewing as a football fan, such a kick in the belly that season for them, seems it all went tits up when they lost their striker in January for them.

The thing that stood out for me was dealing with the players agents, bunch of shylocks the lot of them.

I had it there last night as an option … looked at my wife and thought she wouldn't enjoy.  But based on your review, I will give it a go. Thanks.

Edited April 6, 2020 by rcfinc

[Smoggy]

16 hours ago, wendybr said:

Ughh!

Hope not!

You know it is though....

In other news Qantas cabin crew have tested positive after the Santiago flights. There was an policy where by cabin crew on these flights are exempt from self isolation. Experts saying this loop hole is crazy... they will have likley been with family and friends.

Port Botany also has cases.

Death toll now at 40.

It is difficult to compare the numbers reported with what we are seeing in clusters today and what was reported over the last few days.....alfred, schools (9 schools), Qantas Adelaide, hotel isolation cases ( over 100?)......

Edited April 6, 2020 by Smoggy