Armageddon Thread

[EmMac]

8 hours ago, CaptainJess said:

 

What’s Murphy or the AHPPC going to say to that? If Morrison has a set agenda, then he is going to get his advisors to find him the information he wants to support that. This opinion piece I think sums up more succinctly and poetically the point I’m trying to make - https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6700020/the-not-so-dirty-secret-the-covid-19-panel-wants-to-hide/

Please have a read. 

 

Thanks Jess

An excellent article that i recommend everyone read. Seriously

[Midfielder]

10 hours ago, sonar said:

You mean like the Ruby Princess.......? ,

Where the feds who control our borders let infected people run loose and infect others....?.....no quarrantine....no isolation.....

Where at the start of the virus when the PM was being told by state leaders and health workers that we needed to go into lockdown and he was going to the footy instead.?

The prime minister was slammed on Friday morning after seemingly encouraging people to keep attending mass gatherings as coronavirus continues to spread in Australia.

Top infection control expert Bill Bowtell said Scott Morrison's stance was dangerous, and he couldn’t understand why there hadn't been a blanket ban on large, public events.

https://au.sports.yahoo.com/coronavirus-scott-morrison-slammed-encouraging-footy-attendance-232028748.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAH1_zue-R6Yf8HsxnZ2jILJcj2p9pCr2sZg5kr-didS7-0hRSCZLFXAiuiM3wyogwu5LhMg1pS8_ANLeJ8o12Z8rU02sIPLMTVFlXdJO2fGOeOArhxeKhgAG3-CiBrATI2GYLKHYqUNzCVV2SdTqEE_JjwsiNmU6RP2LWrVJidIG

Only when people started dying did we see the feds act. It's been the Premiers that have largely driven the response because they have constitutional control over health,education and law and order enforcement (lockdown/isolation laws ) and because Aus citizens acting in good faith that we have not had the deaths that other countries have.

 

 

Talk about connecting a plant seed, with a Falcon Heavy rocket.

I have never said mistakes have not been made and also commented on the RP.

I have also posted I actually fall on the side of asking the AP for more proof on the return to school.

All I have said is ... the advise to So Mo on the school return was from the AP... not So Mo on some crazy yet to be identified reason he has.

My contention is to take as much as possible politics out of my analysis to be dispassionate about decisions being made and see if decisions being made come from the AP.

I have no idea why this concept is so hard to understand...

TBH it scares me a lot when people can't take politics out regardless of what side they fall on.... when the issue is the biggest thing in my life time....

 

 

 

[Davo]

3 minutes ago, sonar said:

My perspective is that you put the value of a human life before any economic value. An economy can come back and rebound a dead person can't.

It's not that easy though. Having a strong economy saves lives through the funding of healthcare, disability services, social support programs etc. The longer people spend out of work with an uncertain future the more mental health issues are going to surface, with less money available for mental health support. Yes the current government is notorious for cutting funding to these kinds of services but the less they have to spend the less they will spend.

It's not an either/or, it's finding a balance. If you lock down unnecessarily hard then you're costing lives in other ways. Not saying we should open everything up, I think the current level of restriction is working well and should continue, but it's all about striking the right balance.

[Flytox]

13 hours ago, wendybr said:

Nah not luck - I think our advisory panel, and the federal - state meetings they have are admirable. I think we can be generally proud of our leaders, and of ourselves.

I certainly don't think the decisions taken are all Morrison, but at least he seems to be listening to the experts.

The only thing I am somewhat mystified about is the schools issue - where he seems to have a vision, and an agenda of his own. It does seem out of step with what's being done elsewhere, and with the advise the Premiers are getting - given that they have all gone their own way - to a greater or lesser extent.

To get the development of thinking on schools you need to read the AHPPC advice to government that is covered in a number of their statements.  They issued another one specifically on schools yesterday,

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-advice-on-reducing-the-potential-risk-of-covid-19-transmission-in-schools

[marron]

1 hour ago, wendybr said:

Lots...as well as the majority of admin staff, who have lots of reasonably close contact with kids...including with any sick kids, or kids sent for first aid treatment, after accidents.

To be fair, if a teacher was compromised in this way I think the department/principal would be hard pressed to force them to come in, and working from home would be the most likely solution. Admin staff probably wouldn't have that luxury (their union is ****).

[sonar]

10 minutes ago, Davo said:

It's not that easy though. Having a strong economy saves lives through the funding of healthcare, disability services, social support programs etc. The longer people spend out of work with an uncertain future the more mental health issues are going to surface, with less money available for mental health support. Yes the current government is notorious for cutting funding to these kinds of services but the less they have to spend the less they will spend.

It's not an either/or, it's finding a balance. If you lock down unnecessarily hard then you're costing lives in other ways. Not saying we should open everything up, I think the current level of restriction is working well and should continue, but it's all about striking the right balance.

Look,  I don't disagree or think you are wrong but I'll happily take an extra few months of lockdown/isolation to people being put in a position of their lives being at risk. Weigh up the cost of a life or the cost to the economy. The former wins for me.

[marron]

Those articles from the smh and canberratimes are excellent.

That updated advice on schools is a piece of poo. So much "where possible", and most of them are impossible. Limit groupwork to maintain 1.5 metres? FFS. 1.5 metres is impossible in classroom conditions. The solution in that advice is smaller classes. HA HA HA. Nice one. Then the advice on cleaning - disinfect all the time. Well funnily enough our cleaning services are privatised and do you think they are able to do this? Er, nope. Our cleaner bless her often has to clean without properly functioning equipment and resources and then gets pinged by her off site sub contracted boss for leaving a layer of dust somewhere and not meeting her impossible KPIs as it is. 

 

 

[wendybr]

6 minutes ago, marron said:

To be fair, if a teacher was compromised in this way I think the department/principal would be hard pressed to force them to come in, and working from home would be the most likely solution. 

This is true...but the number will be quite high....perhaps depending on regions.

Northern Sydney, for example, a much older workforce I suspect, then Western Syd

8 minutes ago, marron said:

 Admin staff probably wouldn't have that luxury (their union is ****).

Maybe, but they recently got a significant pay increase, which, I imagine, the PSA fought for?

They've been useful with some issues we've had at our school....related to teachers aide positions.

But who knows.

[wendybr]

12 minutes ago, marron said:

To be fair, if a teacher was compromised in this way I think the department/principal would be hard pressed to force them to come in...

Our principal herself has a condition that means she probably shouldn't have been at work for the final weeks...but she was.

I think you're right about that. Our principal is on board with health considerations of staff.

[marron]

@wendy

Well, yeah, but that's the thing then isn't it - if it's high, it's high, and, well, so what? They work from home; we know it's possible. You are possibly right about northern sydney, I don't know. But age isn't the only thing. I replaced someone in my staffroom who has MS (or something similar) and is in her 20s or whatever.

 

I'd forgotten about the pay increase but that was like the first good thing in years I remember seeing. I'm glad you've seen some more, because I've also seen some situations that have not been good. My point was more, I don't know how they would go making the same case - if nothing else, working from home is more or less an impossibility for a lot of their work (not teacher's aides though, potentially).

[Flytox]

13 hours ago, Smoggy said:

Not sure, but they certainly have areas of condensed living and poverty...making social distancing difficult. Plus confirmed cases so low.

South Africa's new cases per day is above ours now and their deaths appear to be jumping.  14 in the last day.  Like most countries with low numbers i think it is necessary to wait to see if they get the later surge as  is happening in Japan and Singapore.

[wendybr]

56 minutes ago, Flytox said:

To get the development of thinking on schools you need to read the AHPPC advice to government that is covered in a number of their statements.  They issued another one specifically on schools yesterday,

https://www.health.gov.au/news/australian-health-protection-principal-committee-ahppc-advice-on-reducing-the-potential-risk-of-covid-19-transmission-in-schools

Sigh...got a few sections into that, and wouldn't know where to start with it.

When they can't even get basic grammar correct, I'm not sure I trust this mob with the welfare and safety of hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis, in the middle of a global pandemic.

<Shakes head>

PS When was the last time these people were actually in a school????

[sonar]

42 minutes ago, Midfielder said:

Talk about connecting a plant seed, with a Falcon Heavy rocket.

I have never said mistakes have not been made and also commented on the RP.

I have also posted I actually fall on the side of asking the AP for more proof on the return to school.

All I have said is ... the advise to So Mo on the school return was from the AP... not So Mo on some crazy yet to be identified reason he has.

My contention is to take as much as possible politics out of my analysis to be dispassionate about decisions being made and see if decisions being made come from the AP.

I have no idea why this concept is so hard to understand...

TBH it scares me a lot when people can't take politics out regardless of what side they fall on.... when the issue is the biggest thing in my life time....

 

 

 

I know for a fact that I have never posted that Morrison has some crazy agenda. I'll happily wait for you to dig up posts of mine that say so.Just add them to the posts I've suppposedly made about not trusting medicos. 

[CaptainJess]

41 minutes ago, Midfielder said:

Talk about connecting a plant seed, with a Falcon Heavy rocket.

I have never said mistakes have not been made and also commented on the RP.

I have also posted I actually fall on the side of asking the AP for more proof on the return to school.

All I have said is ... the advise to So Mo on the school return was from the AP... not So Mo on some crazy yet to be identified reason he has.

You didn't read the article I posted. Please do - https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/6700020/the-not-so-dirty-secret-the-covid-19-panel-wants-to-hide/

42 minutes ago, Midfielder said:

My contention is to take as much as possible politics out of my analysis to be dispassionate about decisions being made and see if decisions being made come from the AP.

I have no idea why this concept is so hard to understand...

TBH it scares me a lot when people can't take politics out regardless of what side they fall on.... when the issue is the biggest thing in my life time....

The problem with your statement is that it is impossible. Any decision made on the running of the country is a "political" decision. The word political by definition means "relating to the government or public affairs of a country". 

I think what you're referring to is an ideological bias. And as far as I'm concerned, nobody has shown overwhelming bias for or against anyone in this thread. People are assessing the issues and decisions on face value. 

I guarantee you that if Labor were in power and made the same decision, we would be questioning it. 

You can't also totally disregard a party's overall strategy or position. The Libs being economically more conservative IS a factor in a lot of their decision making. You can't just pretend it isn't. Our whole debate here is whether economic or public health concerns should prevail in a decision making process.  

Also, people can be against a certain decision but agree with an overall approach taken. 

[Flytox]

4 minutes ago, wendybr said:

Sigh...got a few sections into that, and wouldn't know where to start with it.

When they can't even get basic grammar correct, I'm not sure I trust this mob with the welfare and safety of hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis, in the middle of a global pandemic.

<Shakes head>

PS When was the ladt time these people were actually in a school????

Did you read the earlier advice on schools?

 

[wendybr]

11 minutes ago, marron said:

@wendy

Well, yeah, but that's the thing then isn't it - if it's high, it's high, and, well, so what? They work from home; we know it's possible. You are possibly right about northern sydney, I don't know. But age isn't the only thing. I replaced someone in my staffroom who has MS (or something similar) and is in her 20s or whatever.

 

I'd forgotten about the pay increase but that was like the first good thing in years I remember seeing. I'm glad you've seen some more, because I've also seen some situations that have not been good. My point was more, I don't know how they would go making the same case - if nothing else, working from home is more or less an impossibility for a lot of their work (not teacher's aides though, potentially).

Yes...I don't disagree with any of that.

The 2 aides I work closely with were able to take leave, when, after the Ruby Princess debacle, they wanted to self isolate, for health reasons.

Not sure  how they could be used in remote learning, but I'm sure they could be, with some upskilling, and with directions  from teachers.

Re admin work, I actually think there'd be heaps to be done on line.

I actually completed the enrolment of 2 new Internationals in those final weeks...from home.

A bazillion emails between guardians, IE Cs, Dept of Ed (International) , the students (for their subject choices), the Head Teachers for available classes, the Deputy, for their timetables, our IT guy, to create their school emails, their teachers, for their Google Classroom codes...and I probably left a bit out there. It was crazy but satisfying when all finalised.

And then I created an MS  Team...so these poor kids  could  "meet"  and get to know each other and some of the other kids, and "socialise" a little.

Next week I'll have to start all over again with another new kid.

It's amazing what can be done online - lol.

[sonar]

13 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

You can't also totally disregard a party's overall strategy or position. The Libs being economically more conservative IS a factor in a lot of their decision making. You can't just pretend it isn't. Our whole debate here is whether economic or public health concerns should prevail in a decision making process.  

Also, people can be against a certain decision but agree with an overall approach taken. 

Bravo Jess.......^^^^^

Edited April 17, 2020 by sonar

[Flytox]

12 hours ago, wendybr said:

One more point - Morrison and the panel initially held Singapore up as a model to follow - and the schools had been kept open - but the last I heard was that they, too had switched to on line learning - as their numbers started to trend upwards.

Where else are the schools kept open, when everything else has been either locked down or severely restricted, as most other sectors here are,I'd be interested to know?

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/03/singapore-shuts-schools-temporarily-closes-workplaces-to-curb-coronavirus.html

The interesting thing here is that we started to shut schools in some form or other after we were over the peak of new cases.

[CaptainJess]

2 minutes ago, wendybr said:

It's amazing what can be done online - lol.

Balks and I were discussing this the other day. Can you imagine if this was 10-15 years ago? Even maybe 5 years ago. 

Nothing we have today was around then or if it was, it was nothing compared to what we have today. Video conferencing was in it's early stages with Skype, the internet quality was worse (despite what some may say to the contrary ) and a large majority didn't have access to a cost-effective mobile device. Laptops were ridiculously expensive, phones were nothing like they are now and software has come along in leaps and bounds. 

I have no doubt that the ability for a large portion of people to effectively pick up and work from home has drastically improved the current situation. This wouldn't have been possible years ago. 

For better or worse, the internet has had a huge impact on society and the way we function. It may not be ideal in certain circumstances, but it's meant our country hasn't just ground to a halt. 

[wendybr]

38 minutes ago, Flytox said:

Did you read the earlier advice on schools?

 

I haven't read any of it Flytox, I will acknowledge.

I spend my waking life in a school environment.

I know what it's like.

I know that you cannot practice social distancing/physical distancing in a school classroom, in the corridors or in a playground, I suspect.

You cannot have students enter a classroom at a distance of 1.5 metres from each other, and then be spaced around  a "Well ventilated"  average school room. In Winter...which is what we'll soon  be in.

I got angry just reading a bit of.the item you last posted.

And I ask again...did these people actually enter a functioning school, and spend any serious amount of time observing the usual practices, or did they simply come up with some laughable suggestions off the top of their heads, as well as the easily implemented practices which were put in place last term (e.g. no assemblies, no excursions).

[wendybr]

19 minutes ago, CaptainJess said:

Balks and I were discussing this the other day. Can you imagine if this was 10-15 years ago? Even maybe 5 years ago. 

Nothing we have today was around then or if it was, it was nothing compared to what we have today. Video conferencing was in it's early stages with Skype, the internet quality was worse (despite what some may say to the contrary ) and a large majority didn't have access to a cost-effective mobile device. Laptops were ridiculously expensive, phones were nothing like they are now and software has come along in leaps and bounds. 

I have no doubt that the ability for a large portion of people to effectively pick up and work from home has drastically improved the current situation. This wouldn't have been possible years ago. 

For better or worse, the internet has had a huge impact on society and the way we function. It may not be ideal in certain circumstances, but it's meant our country hasn't just ground to a halt. 

Yes, Jess!

I've thought this 100 times in the last month!

[Burgerman]

So the question of where the virus actually came from are ramping up, will we find the truth or will some of these conspiracies theories continue.......batfood or sex with a bat, batman went to a dirty brothel, wuhan lab fuq up, 5g towers radiation, rothschild family did it for profit, zionists world cleansing, bill gates who profit on medical supplies...... Yadda yadda 

[Smoggy]

Wow ..between the CMO and ScoMo they go in hard against the Tassie lot don't they! I feel a bit sorry for the hospital and care workers down there.

Unsubstantiated party rumours and now the PM saying a worker deliberately mislead the tracers! 

Perhaps that might work out the case but the comment from the Tassie leader about them perhaps feeling under intense pressure and so on might be closer rather than genuinely misleading? Is it right for ScoMo to jump in with allegations?

Those workers in Tassie are getting hammered either way! 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Smoggy

[Flytox]

1 hour ago, wendybr said:

I haven't read any of it Flytox, I will acknowledge.

I spend my waking life in a school environment.

I know what it's like.

I know that you cannot practice social distancing/physical distancing in a school classroom, in the corridors or in a playground, I suspect.

You cannot have students enter a classroom at a distance of 1.5 metres from each other, and then be spaced around  a "Well ventilated"  average school room. In Winter...which is what we'll soon  be in.

I got angry just reading a bit of.the item you last posted.

And I ask again...did these people actually enter a functioning school, and spend any serious amount of time observing the usual practices, or did they simply come up with some laughable suggestions off the top of their heads, as well as the easily implemented practices which were put in place last term (e.g. no assemblies, no excursions).

The earlier statements detail their thinking on keeping schools open which was something you had been questioning.

[sonar]

37 things we've done because of  C-19.....lol

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12325550

[wendybr]

1 hour ago, Flytox said:

The earlier statements detail their thinking on keeping schools open which was something you had been questioning.

No, I've not read anything detailed about their thinking.

But I imagine their thinking is what we all think, which is that it isnt an ideal way of delivering education...although it will be fine for  some kids.

But I'm sure noone thinks anything about the way we're living is ideal.

But it's about our overall priorities as a society, trying to function during extraordinarily difficult times.

[wendybr]

26 minutes ago, Flytox said:

The earlier statements detail their thinking on keeping schools open which was something you had been questioning.

Actually, did their earlier statements  systematically refute the reasons why health authorities all over the world, and most public figures as well (with the exception of people like Trump and Bolsenaro) advocate  closing down schools, and the wearing of face masks in public?

I appears that our Authority knows better than health authorites everywhere else, most of whom have had a head start on us.

I'd actually be very happy to read their evidence-based research on why all those authorities have got it so wrong.

[pseudonym]

 

[Flytox]

1 hour ago, wendybr said:

Actually, did their earlier statements  systematically refute the reasons why health authorities all over the world, and most public figures as well (with the exception of people like Trump and Bolsenaro) advocate  closing down schools, and the wearing of face masks in public?

I appears that our Authority knows better than health authorites everywhere else, most of whom have had a head start on us.

I'd actually be very happy to read their evidence-based research on why all those authorities have got it so wrong.

Here is the AHPPC's initial advice on 17 March:-

Recommendation to the Education Sector

Schools

The AHPPC met on Tuesday 17 March to consider the issue of school closures in relation to the community transmission of COVID‑19. The Committee’s advice is that pre-emptive closures are not proportionate or effective as a public health intervention to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 at this time.

There is currently limited information on the contribution of children to transmission of COVID-19. The WHO-China Joint Mission noted the primary role of household transmission and observed that children tended to be infected by adults in the household.  In China, 2.4% of total reported cases were under the age of 19 years old. Worldwide, of those cases under 19 years of age, very few were severe or critical. This contrasts distinctly with the severity pattern observed with other respiratory viruses, where young children are particularly at risk of severe disease.

Previous studies suggest that the potential reduction in community transmission from pre‑emptive school closures may be offset by the care arrangements that are in place for children who are not at school. Children may require care from older carers who are more vulnerable to severe disease, or may continue to associate (and transmit infection) outside of school settings.

Broadly, the health evidence on school closures from previous respiratory epidemics shows the costs are often underestimated and the benefits are overestimated. This may be even more so in relation to COVID-19 as, unlike influenza, the impact on otherwise healthy children has been minimal to date.

School closure is associated with considerable costs. Studies have estimated that around 15% of the total workforce and 30% of the healthcare workforce may need to take time off work to care for children. This burden will be significant and will fall disproportionately on those in casual or tenuous work circumstances.

At this stage, the spread of COVID-19 in the community is at quite low levels. It may be many months before the level of Australian community infection is again as low as it is at the moment. For pre-emptive school closures to be effective, closure for at least several months is required and it would be unclear when they could be re-opened.

School closures for shorter defined periods may be considered as part of a suite of more stringent distancing measures later in the outbreak, in anticipation of a peak in infection rates.

Short term reactive school closure may also be warranted to allow cleaning and contact tracing to occur in response to an outbreak in a given school.

More than 70 countries around the world have implemented either nationwide or localised school closures, at different times in the evolution of the local COVID-19 epidemic, however it should be noted the majority of these have not been successful in controlling the outbreak. Some of these countries are now considering their position in relation to re-opening schools.

Singapore has had success in limiting the transmission of COVID-19 in the community without closing schools. Other countries are working in different contexts, including Northern Hemisphere countries making decisions at the end of winter with COVID-19 being accompanied by influenza in the community.

The advice in relation to school closures will continue to be reviewed at daily meetings of the AHPPC.

Schools should implement a range of other strategies to reduce transmission, including the promotion of personal hygiene measures (frequent handwashing, reducing face-to-face contact, cough etiquette), physical distancing, reducing public gatherings (e.g. face-to-face school assemblies), and reducing the mixing of students (e.g. reduced use of common areas, staggered lunchtimes, and reduced after-school activities and inter-school activities).

Schools should also reinforce existing policies to exclude students and staff who are unwell, and current policies requiring quarantine for those who have recently travelled overseas. It is also important that the learning needs of students who are excluded from school are met.

[Midfielder]

4 hours ago, Flytox said:

South Africa's new cases per day is above ours now and their deaths appear to be jumping.  14 in the last day.  Like most countries with low numbers i think it is necessary to wait to see if they get the later surge as  is happening in Japan and Singapore.

I also question their numbers if you look at the black slums and honestly to think they have been fully tested is a stretch... and their testing ratio is way down.