I wonder if how this will effect the integrity of the domestic competitions. Right now all clubs need to maintain their level of performance to make sure they stay in the European spots. If they don’t have to worry about qualifying they’ll be sending out youth teams once they can’t win the title. They’re not going to play any of their top squad if they’ve got a game against Milan mid week.
The clubs either have an oligarch (Chelsea), a government (Real Madrid), or a sovereign wealth fund (City) pumping money into them or protecting them, or they have a precarious amount of debt (the rest of them). Barcelona is apparently in a big hole financially, with a lot of debt coming due soon. Juventus have spent big on players like Ronaldo and haven't had the success they should be getting, which is going to make paying back their debts even harder. Arsenal are slowly sliding into irrelevance and are unlikely to be playing any sort of European football unless they can win the Europa League. Clubs like Spurs and Athletico Madrid have to pay off new stadiums. United have big debts but enough revenue to service them, although Old Trafford is falling apart and in need of an expensive update. Liverpool are a real chance of missing the Champions League and may find themselves overextended.
If they were happy with the current situation they wouldn't be trying to force such drastic changes. By failing to take the financial fair play rules seriously, by letting PSG flaunt the rules to buy Neymar, by admitting City broke the rules and actively tried to impede their investigation, yet punished them for spending too much money by giving them a fine, UEFA have forced everyone else to spend themselves into oblivion. It was inevitable that we'd end up here.
This can only really go one of two ways. Either FIFA and UEFA fold, give in to demands and the big clubs know they can make this threat again to get their way any time they like in the future, or they dig in and throw the twelve clubs out of everything.
If they fold, the big clubs will run football and set the rules to make sure they stay on top. I'd read that UEFA was working with UK investment fund Centricus to basically pay the breakaway clubs off with more cash than they'd get from JP Morgan for the super league. It'd work for now but everyone would know who is in charge.
If FIFA, UEFA and the national associations dig in things could get interesting. UEFA are meeting today and expect a motion to expel Chelsea, City and Real Madrid from the Champions League, and United and Arsenal from the Europa League. I'm sure the teams eliminated by those clubs in the quarter finals would be happy to jump back in if invited so the tournaments will go on. If they also declare the clubs ineligible for next years European competitions their only choices are to miss out entirely or go ahead with the super league. Contracts in place between the Premier League and the clubs say that the clubs need permission to compete in any tournament that isn't the Premier League, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, League Cup, or tournaments organised by the FA. I'm sure the other leagues would have similar clauses so that would allow the leagues to expel the breakaway clubs from domestic leagues. Once we're at that point they're going to ban the players from international matches, the UEFA president has already said they plan to.
Then what? You've got twelve clubs who can only play each other in this tournament and nothing else. None of their players can play in the Euros or a World Cup while at the clubs. I can see all that falling over pretty quickly, the players all moving on to other clubs and everything settling back down to normal. Might throw a few bucks on Leicester, Everton, etc. to win next years Premier League while they're still paying $50-$100.