Western Sydney Wanderers vs Central Coast Mariners
Sunday 21st April 2013 - 4:00PM - Sydney Football Stadium
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Formation: 4-2-3-1
Likely Starting Line-up: Covic, Polenz, Beauchamp, Topor-Stanley, Cole, Mooy, Poljak, Haliti, Ono, Bridge, Kresinger.
Rest Of Squad: Saliadarre, Elrich, Appiah-Kubi, Visconte, Trifiro, Perkatis, Caira, Gibbs.
Players Unavailable: Tyson, Minniecon, D'Apuzzo (Injury). La Rocca, Hersi (Suspension).
Manager: Tony Popovic.
The Western Sydney Wanderers go into their first ever Grand Final, in their first ever season, with numerous players unavailable. La Rocca's suspension reduces midfield depth, and leaves the squad short of central defenders. Hersi is considered by many pundits to be one of the best players in the A-League this season and his loss will stifle the Wanderers attacking threat down the right hand side. There are injury concerns to Jerome Polenz, Mark Bridge and Aaron Mooy although all are expected to play. The major positive is that despite these concerns, the defence has been nigh on impenetrable, and the attack has continued to fire over the final weeks of the season.
A-League Manager of the year Tony Popovic has guided his hand picked squad through the inaugural season, overcoming the pre-season doubters to assemble a team that won the Premiership while embarking on an epic winning streak, which has since transformed into a 13 game unbeaten streak. In a twist typical of football, the last time the Wanderers tasted defeat was against the Central Coast. A cup final of any kind is usually the toughest test of a manager's quality, with no next week, it is a do or die match up that will test the limits of his ability. His meticulous planning has imprinted each member of the squad with their role, an unshakable belief in their own ability to win matches, and spurred on by the RBB & other Wanderers supporters who will be the majority of the patrons at the Sydney Football Stadium the club will not go into this match expecting and desiring anything but victory.
Their game plan can be reported on by a blind man. When not in possession, up to 6 players will press high and fast up the pitch to force opposition defenders to kick long and allow Topor-Stanley, Beauchamp or Covic to clear the ball or grab possession. If the opposition beat the press, the Wanderers will fall back, keeping 10 men behind the ball to force the opposition to try break their stoic and organised defensive structure down. In attack, their midfield will seek out the likes of Bridge and Ono on the flanks, then cut inside and directly attack the opposition, with the fullbacks looking to overlap for crossing opportunities into the middle.
Formation: 4-4-2 Diamond
Likely Starting Line-up: Ryan, Bojic, Sainsbury, Zwaanswijk, Rose, Bozanic, Ibini, Hutchinson, McGlinchey, Sterjovski, McBreen.
Rest Of Squad: Pasfield, Duke, Caceras, Fitzgerald, McDonald, Kwasnik, Griffiths.
Players Unavailable: Nick Montgomery (Suspension).
Manager: Graham Arnold.
This will be their fourth Grand Final for zero wins so far. The "chokers" tag hangs around their neck like a proverbial hangman noose. Graham Arnold has witnessed his team capitulate badly in two previous finals series and in the race for the Premiership this season. Apart from the suspension to Montgomery, Central Coast is fully fit and ready to play. They have no injury concerns and Arnold has a full squad to choose from.
There is an interesting tactical decision to be made by Arnold. What formation will he play? For over 20 games this season they have played a diamond 4-4-2, with the majority of these involving Montgomery as a screening midfielder. I find it unlikely that Arnold will switch up his formation in such a vital match. The only likely personell change is the replacement of the suspended Montgomery by Oliver Bozanic. His alternate formation is a 4-2-3-1. Should he elect to line-up with this formation in a mirror of the Wanderers, it would likely see Bozanic as the holding midfielder, McGlinchey and Hutchinson as the central midfield combination, Sterjovski & Ibini on the flank with McBreen leading the line. The Mariners generally pass the ball around the back, try to find their wingers to work combination play between the midfield, wing and fullbacks. If they take the lead they will park the bus and put every man behind the ball, as they did against Melbourne for vast swathes of the semi-final, and practically dare the opposition to try and score, knowing that if they lose possession to the Mariners they will be facing lightning quick counter-attack.
Arnold has suggested he has players contemplating retirement, and obvious example being Zwaanswijk, while other younger players are certain to leave. Ryan, Sainsbury & Ibini are sure to join Tom Rogic in leaving the Central Coast for Europe, this could be the last of the Mariners "Golden Generation", combined with older players retiring it may mean the start of a rebuilding phase, especially if Arnold moves himself to richer pastures.
Either team winning would be a huge reward for that team and their effort in the A-League. For the Mariners, to finally win the Championship at their fourth attempt, after so much heartbreak for their suffering fans and manager.
For the Wanderers, to win the double in their first season with 10's of thousands of supporters watching on. Having waited 8 and a half years since Frank Lowy moved the nascent Sydney FC from the preferred location of Parramatta Stadium to the Sydney Football Stadium, those clad in Red & Black finally have a team of their own that they can be proud of, that represents our values and our parts of this wonderful city.
What an ironic twist it would be, that after the decision to play at the SFS resulted in Sydney FC abandoning the West for 8 long years, that the West could triumph, to confirm the domination of Season 2012/2013 by the newly formed Western Sydney Wanderers at that very stadium, with the RBB located at the Cove end.
Making a prediction over this match in any logical fashion would be like throwing a handful of darts and hoping to hit the bulls-eye. For every point there is a counter-point, and a counter-counter-point. Each team is ferociously stubborn at following through on the plans of their managers, and both teams have spectacularly effective star players across the pitch. The Mariners may feel they have an edge due to the loss of Hersi, but the Mariners have lost a player of their own. The Wanderers will lift in front of a huge crowd and that could be enough to get them over the line.
I throw out logic and go with my heart. This season has already exceeded everything I dared hope for, so why not finishing the season the same way.
Wanderers 3-0. Bridge hat-trick.
Wouldn't that be something?
