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About CaptainJess

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    Club Captain
  • Birthday 17/07/1991

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    Bay 26

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  1. It was Balks who organised and distributed the scarfs. There’s still a couple in a drawer somewhere around the house. I may be able to organise one for a steep price
  2. If you look at my post from Friday, you’ll see a few articles. They pretty much kept everything open and from the looks of it, are going down the very risky herd immunity route. I would assume the reasons the numbers exploded was that they started testing properly again after stopping it for everyone bar high risk patients a while ago. From what I’ve heard quoted by the Swedish leaders, they are more worried about the economic and social impacts rather than the health aspects. They might change their tune soon though
  3. If you're interested in the stats for Australia and some basic modelling, follow these accounts on Twitter below. They are pretty accurate and a bunch of stats and science people have taken on doing their own modelling, projections and analysis. The account below retweets it all as well as updating numbers whenever they are released by the states. This guy below puts up some great graphs. He recalculates his graphs and modelling every day based on the official numbers. This is his modelling today. Estimated to reach the peak at 8059 in mid April. Back a week or two ago based on the numbers coming through, there was an estimate of up to 107,000. While it's not super accurate, his predictions based on the formula he's using have been within ~50 of actual daily totals for at least week or so. Whenever the daily amount is under, the future modelling changes, which is why the graph below has gone from that to the one above. Positive signs on some basic modelling.
  4. TBH, wouldn't trust the Malaysia or Sweden numbers in your first sentence. Sweden is not really taking things as seriously as they probably should and still have nearly everything open. They have also stopped testing people with symptoms and are only testing high-risk people. So their numbers are from early on when they were testing more, not now. They will definitely have more cases, just not confirmed. Seems to me they are going down the herd immunity route. https://au.news.yahoo.com/sweden-taking-radical-approach-to-managing-coronavirus-threat-075055124.html https://www.thelocal.se/20200320/fact-check-has-sweden-stopped-testing-people-for-the-coronavirus Malaysia, well there's very little transparency in testing figures from what I can find online and also lots of propaganda on how many people have supposedly recovered. I also don't trust a Government that puts out something like this - https://www.sbs.com.au/news/malaysia-apologises-for-campaign-urging-women-to-stop-nagging-their-husbands-during-covid-19-lockdown They also had a huge religious festival that has been linked to hundreds of other cases through Asia, but they still apparently have low numbers? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-19/coronavirus-spread-from-malaysian-event-to-multiple-countries/12066092 Don't really buy it. Then in terms of other countries reaching figures after 22 days, I don't buy India or the Philiphines numbers either. In India with the population they have and the density, those numbers are just unrealistic. I've also found some figures on various sites that say India has only tested 47,000 "samples" not people. In a country of 1.3 billion people, many below the poverty line this is pitiful but not unexpected. I wouldn't be trusting these figures. And then the Philipines. Well there is mass panic and unrest over there and Duterte is threatening to shoot everyone, so again not really the most transparent Government going around. You take out those anomalies and you're left with Poland, Norway, Denmark, New Zealand and Ireland who are performing better than us in different ways. Norway and Denmark are some of the most progressive countries in Europe and were a few of the first to close borders and shut schools and send employees home. They are also performing random testing now and have quite transparent figures. I tend to think they are accurate. New Zealand is obviously pretty transparent and is doing a fair amount of testing for their population size. Poland is a funny one. They also locked down early and eastern Europe doesn't seem to have been hit as hard as Western Europe, however it looks they are playing funny buggers with some of their numbers. They are only declaring deaths by COVID if they are clinically diagnosed. They aren't doing any post-mortem testing. Their Ministry of Health also tried to ban medical professionals from speaking out on the virus around two weeks ago. So I guess take their figures with a grain salt. Overall, based on the testing rates and the transparent numbers we have I would make an argument we're outperforming a lot of the developed world in the right areas based on our large population. I've been saying this for a while. We definitely don't live on top of others like they do in Europe. It's been interesting that the hot spots in NSW are in the more dense population spots of the Eastern Suburbs where there are a lot of apartments and townhouses. Balks and I have a theory as well that the hardest hit countries in Europe all have very high population densities and have "cafe cultures". Spain, France, Italy etc. all love to go out with family and friends and sit around cafes smoking, chatting and drinking coffee. He's seen it first hand in Bosnia, Croatia etc. even after COVID-19 was getting around early on. Guaranteed this plays a part in the spread. Very easy to spread to four or five people in one sitting and then the waitress spreads it to other tables and off it goes. It tends to be the oldies that do it too, so hence the terrible death rates.
  5. Have seen from multiple sources on Twitter this morning that our testing rates in NSW went from 76,000+ to 90,000+ over the past day or two. I'm trying to find an official source for that info. But if true, that's a lot of testing and makes the fact numbers have dropped even better. They expanded the testing criteria slightly too a few days ago. We really need to see this sustained drop over a long period though. There's a tiny little skew to the right on a bunch of charts though. Even more so for states like WA, SA and TAS. If it does though, Gladys and ScoMo might have just pulled off the save of the lifetime without even really trying. Can you imagine? Even with the bungled cruise ship fiasco and the poor airport handling situation.
  6. On another note, I’m afraid I could potentially be stood down from my role soon. It doesn’t look like community sport is getting back underway anytime soon and the only way a lot of organisations will survive is by pairing back costs. Our biggest cost at the moment is staff. I think our boss will try and keep us on for as long as possible, but if we don’t have rego fees, we can’t operate. Netball NSW just stood down all bar a few of it’s staff. We have about a quarter of the employees they have but it’s still scary. I’ve done the numbers and I think I’ll be okay if it happens but it’s something I never considered. I’m lucky to have a partner with a very stable job (actually essential) and good income and parents who could potentially step in if required for a short time. $1100 a fortnight would just cover my mortgage if I didn’t get a holiday from my bank. Then I’d have to cut my expenses right back and rely on Balks and my parents to assist with things like rates, strata etc. If I did get a holiday, it might be a bit easier. I’m lucky I barely have any debt either. About $500 on a credit card which I am now desperately trying to pay down. I have a good tenant with decent cashflow and savings but I wouldn’t feel right taking his money if I got a holiday. Even if I was in trouble myself.
  7. If Gladys had the balls to stand up to ScoMo and put us into lockdown on Sunday, I would have had much respect for her. I’m not a Libs fan by any means but I appreciate someone who backs their decisions and will make tough calls. It’s clear she got a talking to and backed down. Andrews with a Labour Government in VIC has been the only one to take a real stand because he doesn’t have to listen to word ScoMo says. Time will tell but I think they’ll be much better off for it. I think we have a lot of things in our favour - the weather, our population density, decent education levels and the fact we’re a bloody big island. The places really struggling right now have big populations that live on top of each other. We aren’t like China or Italy or even the US. We have a chance to really have a good go at reducing this thing. I don’t think anyone suspects we will eradicate it, but if we can bring it down to minimal levels of new cases, that would be a huge win. We definitely need to do more testing though. More visibility and contact tracing are essential and we need police to start really enforcing quarantine.
  8. I don't really think people are going to have an option in the end. I can't realistically see anyway we can open our borders back up to anyone given how it's going in places like America and most of Europe. Unless other countries who have it under control have the exact same restrictions we do, it's going to be impossible. The US is a ****-fight and so is most of Europe. You might be able to open back up to places like New Zealand, Fiji, Vanuatu, Singapore etc. but they would also need to block people from hot-spots. Wouldn't put it past #ScottyFromMarketing opening our borders with the US again before it's under control because the orange man-child chucked a tantrum that people were restricting them.
  9. To be honest, I think people would prefer this model. Go hard, get it under control here so we can return to a somewhat fairly normal existence here where most people can have their jobs back. If it meant that people can't travel or holiday overseas for a year, then I think most people would take that option right now. I certainly would. And if you have to travel (and have an exemption) you are required to isolate in a set area on your return. None of this self-isolate bullshit. Or if they isolate at home, constant police checks and mobile data checks like in Singapore should be the absolute minimum. Yes the tourism industry and those who rely on it would be hit hard, but I'd take that over the thousands of restaurant, cafe, massage palour, cinema etc. workers we have out of a job now. Prop up tourism industry for a while, get people to holiday in Australia and get the economy moving.
  10. They've stopped selling them for the foreseeable future
  11. This was quite interesting. However I keep coming back to the graph right at the end. If 80-90% of us socially distance appropriately, this could be under control in 50 days. This just demonstrates to me that if we go hard with a 4 week lock down now, then we could really nip this in the bud. I don't get this rhetoric from the Government that whatever we implement will have to stay around months on end. Surely if you go hard now and then slowly ease back restrictions over the following weeks we would all be better off. I don't get the whole go slowly thing now and wait and see. We won't know if what we did over the past week will have any affect until two or three weeks down the track. If it's worst case scenario, we're already behind the ball and then will have to try and play catch-up which will drag things out even longer. Go a four week lockdown. After that, scale back to level 3 restrictions for two or three weeks. Then if everything is fine, reduce to level 2 and so on. It is going to take months, but I think the way we are going about things is going to extend this unnecessarily.
  12. Nah... Best place to get Burek is at my mother-in-law's house
  13. If I can give any advice to people, it's this. Unfortunately it's probably compounding the problem but the only way I managed to get things was by going as Aldi was opening. You leave it any later and the main items like meat, eggs and flour will be gone. The only thing we managed to grab at another time was a packet of pasta and some paper towel that was being stocked later in the evening. But this was over a week ago. It's got much worse since then. I've also found that heading to stores that aren't in a major shopping centre have a little bit more stock. I went to a stand-alone Aldi and Balks went to a stand-alone IGA when we managed to get our stuff. If you're desperate for toilet paper, I have been told by a close contact that the DuraSoft factory in Wetherill Park sells direct to the public on site and they had plenty of stock three days ago - https://www.durasoft.com.au I feel for those that are limited in mobility or work shift-work. They can't go to multiple places and spend hours looking for things.
  14. Balks and I have both got a mask and wear it out in public. He catches the bus to work every morning so I worry about him. There’s a lot of talk about how masks don’t protect you etc etc. I have a suspicion that it is to stop people panic buying them too. While I know it isn’t 100% fool proof, surely it’s better than nothing. Why would health staff be wearing them otherwise? I think it’s courteous as well in case you do cough or sneeze that you’re not potentially infecting someone else. There’s a lot of people with them now. I definitely feel safer seeing lots of people with them on. Less chance of me catching something. Wear your mask with pride. Already doing this. Including the big unit https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8112991/Shoppers-form-orderly-line-Coles-staff-hand-one-pack-toilet-paper-customer.html
  15. Same here as Sonar and Wendy. We haven’t gone crazy stocking up but I bravely fought the crowds and went to the shops yesterday morning. I bought some mince, sausages and chicken breast. I also got a packet of flour, two lots of eggs and two lots of bread. Balks went the other night and managed to get some pasta, sauces and noodles. We already had a stockpile of tuna, rice and Mi Goreng which all goes like crazy in our household. And luckily Balks spotted a Amazon bargain on toilet paper about a month ago before the craziness. We aren’t hoarding but I definitely did feel guilty walking out with two lots of various products from the supermarket even though I had no more than a basket worth. However, I don’t want to be anywhere near a shopping centre or supermarket for the next couple of weeks. So between some takeout and the stuff we’ve got, we should be fine. I think the problem is that while some are hoarding and buying to make a profit reselling, I think the majority of people are all of sudden probably buying slightly more than they usually would in a normal shop. This has a compounding effect when nearly everyone does it. I think people are also having this reaction because they can’t trust anyone but themselves to look out for them in an emergency. The Government have certainly shown that with the bushfires.
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