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Everything posted by Davo

  1. Boris Johnson has been transferred to hospital for "precautionary tests".
  2. Those numbers are tragic but for context, the US averaged nearly one death per minute yesterday.
  3. On the question of to mask or not to mask, it’ll be the result of a risk assessment. Would we be better off if everyone wore a mask every time they left the house? Absolutely. But would the benefits outweigh the risks? At the first sign of a pandemic society lost its collective mind and panic bought toilet paper like it was a dysentery outbreak. Imagine how much worse the run on masks would be If we were told we need to wear them. I guarantee we’d have shortages pretty quickly. Vulnerable people and healthcare workers will go without while knobs have their two year supply of masks gathering dust next to their two year supply of toilet paper they raided from a rural Woolies. The risks associated with going outside without a mask are fairly low right now. The risks associated with a shortage are huge and will kill people.
  4. But right now the business couldn't afford a $700k flop because they have no income.
  5. Normally I'd agree, although they're still charging their subscribers for a sports package when there's no sport being played, so their argument is a little hard to swallow.
  6. For those that are interested in data analysis here's an interesting way of visualising the progression of the virus in different countries. From the thumbnail you can see that there's a strong correlation between the number of cases in a country (x-axis) and the number of new cases they will generate in a week (y-axis). Since the virus spreads exponentially the logarithmic scales make it a straight line. Once you get things under control you drop off that line as the spread is no longer exponential. The source graph is available here: https://aatishb.com/covidtrends/ The good news is Australia is showing the first signs of leaving the line and dropping off, meaning we've slowed the exponential growth and started to gain some control. Still, it's only a small drop and other countries have had similar drops, been less vigilant and returned to the line. Need to keep going with the preventive measures.
  7. And you've got people in rugby league demanding that the NRL open their books because they want to know where all the money went. They were completely oblivious to how precarious the house of cards was.
  8. If people are allowed to got out for a jog I'd argue that taking the elderly out for a drive in the confines of a car is a fairly low risk form of mental exercise. Plus if anyone ever questioned you just say you're taking him to a doctors appointment.
  9. So I had enough of working from home and decided to look into the numbers. I took the number of confirmed cases per day in Australia and then shifted it forward 8 days, using the data from the above article suggesting an average of 8 days from infection to positive test result. Ended up with this chart. This shows that in mid March when we were recording 50ish new cases a day we were actually seeing 350-400 people being infected each day. It also shows the impact of the preventive measures the government implemented. Most of the serious measures were implemented on the 15th and 16th of March (cancellation of large gatherings, promoting social distancing, people beginning to work from home, social distancing measures in schools, multiple states officially declaring an emergency). Up until the 16th it was a pretty smooth and consistent exponential curve. From then on the overall trend has been downwards. There was a small bump a few days later, although the majority were in NSW and many could be attributed to the Ruby Princess cruise passengers. They got off the ship on the 19th and by the 28th had 284 positive tests. There's been a drop of infections from the 20th, which was the day the government shut down all foreigners entering the country. The next interesting point will be this time next week. That will be 8 days after the mandatory quarantine for returning overseas travelers, but also 8 days after Queensland went ahead with their local elections. Wonder whether we'll see an increase there and a drop everywhere else.
  10. Plus I can see their dig at sending the players across the country backfiring. Sage can just say that it shows how hard he tried to prevent a work stoppage and keep paying his players until it got taken out of his hands.
  11. Davo


    Donald Trump, Boris Johnson, the Pope and two school kids are on a plane that’s going down and only has four parachutes. Trump grabs the first one, says “I’m the smartest man in America, they need me” and jumps. Boris grabs the second one, says “I have to get Brexit done, they need me” and jumps. The Pope grabs the third one, says “There are a billion Catholics, they need me” and jumps. One of the school kids starts to panic. The other says “Don’t worry. The smartest man in America just jumped out of the plane with my school bag.”
  12. The Dutch have their total football, the Italians Catenaccio, the Brazilians Jogo Bonito. We'll have a philosophy based on building a team around Rhyan Grant...
  13. Yeah, media messaging needs to be really clear that a reduction in new cases doesn't mean it's over and we're all good. It means that all of these difficult measures we've taken are working and we need to keep them going.
  14. We've been one of the best countries for testing so I think it's evidence that the distancing measures are working. I've been working from home for two weeks now and I know a lot of other businesses who have been doing the same. All major public events have been cancelled for weeks and all international travel has been stopped for over a week. You'd have to think that these measures would slow things down. I read that the average lag from getting infected to getting a positive test is about 8 days, so we won't see the results of these measures for over a week. This article looks at the data from China. Apparently they asked everyone there who tested positive some questions about when they first developed symptoms and when they thought they were infected. They could then build a retrospective graph of when people actually became new cases, as opposed to when they finally got a positive test. Gave them a good look back at how instantly effective the lockdown was. If I have some time I might try that method and see if it shows the impact of the different restrictions being implemented here.
  15. Nix playing 4D chess here. Can't get home? Get deported.
  16. My cousin in England has the virus (relatively young and mild symptoms so should be fine, currently quarantined at home) and he said he lost his sense of smell and taste. I've read a few accounts of people having the same issue who have recovered and they say it all starts to come back in about a week, so it doesn't seem to be permanent.
  17. My first thought was surely the FFA would have some sort of force majeure clause in their contract, but then I remembered this is the same FFA who chose Western United as an expansion team to get extra Fox tv money but got screwed because they weren't Melbourne enough.
  18. NZ banning entry to all foreigners without permanent residence. Looks like all the Nix visa players are now trapped in Australia until the threat is over, some with families back in NZ.
  19. Yeah Indian and Asian grocers have heaps of stuff, particularly rice. Last weekend there were a few non-food items I needed that were sold out at Woolies, went to the Big W in the same shopping centre and the shelves were full. Now we've got rural supermarkets checking ID's to make sure only locals get in because people in the city are getting on buses and cleaning them out. Can't live without that ninth pack of toilet paper but happy to spend two hours in a bus full of strangers during a pandemic...
  20. I can't see the government taking too much heat on a recession. They can just blame a one in a hundred year pandemic and a global recession caused by other countries, which is probably fair enough. I can't really see what the government could have done differently to prevent a recession given the situation. It'll be interesting to see whether they decide to lean right in to that defense and start making cuts that they've always wanted to make but couldn't take the political hit. Now they have an excuse they may sneak some of these cuts in and use the above defense.
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