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Flytox

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About Flytox

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  1. Thats what they are getting in China and South Korea. We might get a bit lower but this side of getting there it is unknown. It is the sort of losses we get in a bad flu season. Oh and by the way cases appear to be rising in Japan at the moment. I'll have to keep an eye on that because it was one of the countries held up as a model to follow.
  2. That the number of new cases is going down is a good thing but we will need to get used to the fact that it won't go away until we get R0 < 1. i.e., an infectious person passes the disease on to less than 1 person during their infectious period. R0 is said to be 2 to 2.5 for Covid 19 and of the 3 factors used to calculate it, infectious period, contact rate and mode of transmission, we can only affect contact rate hence the need to keep a tight hold with social distancing for the duration of the pandemic. If we stabilise to similar to South Korea it will mean 50+ new cases per day and 5-10 deaths per day as the norm.
  3. Sweden was below our curve but in the last 5 days their case numbers have accelerated to twice ours per day so they have moved above us. There has been a number of countries that have been going along consistently and have then accelerated away again. I don't know the reasons but it is something that we should look out for. It concerns me that there are starting to be calls to ease back on our restrictions.
  4. We've gone past midnight GMT so worldometers has updated their stats so I have used their stats to update my spreadsheet. They also have updated each country so that all have the charts. I have started to expand the number of countries I chart and so far I have 30 countries in my spreadsheet. Of the 30 countries 18 have more cases than us, another 8 or so will pass our curve soon and 3 appear on the face of it to be "doing better" than us. These are Norway, Malaysia and New Zealand. Norway has done 19,000 tests per 1m population while we have done 11,000 so their stats should be reliable but they are creeping up on our curve. Malaysia has only done 1,500 so their stats are fairly dubious. Of the 30 countries only Brazil has a lower rate of testing. New Zealand has done 6,800 tests per 1m population which is at the lower end of the countries that have done bulk testing. It appears that only New Zealand will end up will their curve being better than ours. I will expand the number of countries on my spreadsheet as there are quite a number with much lower figures than ours that are whizzing up towards us. I remember Albo having a shot at the Government about us not following South Korea's example. It appears that if we keep on with following the social distancing requirements we will end up with our curve tracking along the same as theirs but with us having about 3-3,500 less cases.
  5. The MCFG owner was worth over US$20b about the time they took over Heart. The bloke that owns SFC (Traktovenko) was thought to be a billionaire when he took it over but the last I saw he wasn't on the list of billionaire Russian oligarchs. Lederer was worth A$1.14b in a recent rich list.
  6. I was thinking about the much higher case numbers in Europe than we have and I wonder whether our individual houses on "large" blocks of land that reduces the population density might have something to do with it.
  7. Keeping him there for the late closing?
  8. A practical lesson for the kids?
  9. This note above the list explains the France situation. NOTE: France today reported 884 additional deaths that have occurred in nursing homes over the past days and weeks [source]. The French Government did not include these deaths in their official count, as their count only takes into consideration deaths of hospitalized patients. Following international standards of correct inclusion, our statistics will include these deaths, and will add them to the April 2, 2020 count following the attribution criteria of date of report. If and when the French government determines and communicates the correct distribution of these additional deaths over time, we will adjust the historical data accordingly. I remember reading a quote from one of the mayors in northern Italy where he said only the people that died in hospital that had a confirmed case were included in their death list but that only explained one third of the 300% rise in deaths when compared to last year.
  10. I don't foresee any problems with the restoration of how things were before in the long run. The problem will be how to ease them off in the mid term but not fire up the infection rate again. Most of the restrictions have required state action to enforce and in some cases to change state Acts so it may take a while to sort it all out.
  11. I am starting to be annoyed at the growing concern about civil liberties. In my view this is a time when civic duty overrides civil liberties. Maybe I need to acknowledge my bias due to my age being in the 70-79 range and having 2 of the major underlying health issues that between the 3 take me into one of the highest risk categories. The only time I go out at the moment is for Drs visits (and I had to have a few urgent extractions this week) and it is a bit sobering to think that just by being away from home I am putting myself at risk ( even if it is slight).
  12. I have taken the data on the worldometer website and put it into my own spreadsheet and I update it every day so I can compare how we are going relative to the other countries and from the chart I get an idea of where we might be going. The comparison is a bit misleading because testing regimes are not uniform. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
  13. The no growth in weeks is what we are all aiming for. They and South Korea are following the same pattern and that is what is expected when you follow the go soon go hard strategy. You don't eradicate the virus but you bring it under control.
  14. I've been looking at the sats to see how different countries are going with this pandemic. I've listed the ones with detailed data on worldometers website starting from the country that reach the 100 cases first. I've left China out because their states are considered to be dubious.. 20 February - South Korea passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 7,979 cases. 23 February - Italy passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 27,980 cases. 26 February - Iran passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 18,407 cases. 29 February - France passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 16,018 cases. 1 March - Germany passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 29,056 cases. 2 March - USA passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 54,856 cases. 2 March - Spain passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 42,058 cases. 5 March - UK passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 14,543 cases. 5 March - Switzerland passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 12,928 cases. 5 March - Norway passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 3,771 cases. 5 March - Sweden passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 3,069 cases. 6 March - Belgium passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 9,134 cases. 6 March Netherlands passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 9,762 cases. 8 March - Austria passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 9,618 cases. 8 March - Malaysia passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 2,626 cases. 9 March - Denmark passed 100 cases and 22 days later they had 2,860 cases. 10 March - Australia passed 100 cases and 22 days later we have 5,048 cases. 11 March - Canada passed 100 cases and 21 days later they have reached 9,731 cases. 11 March - Israel passed 100 cases and 21 days later they have reached 6,092 cases. 13 March - Portugal passed 100 cases and 19 days later they have reached 8,251 cases. 13 March - Brazil passed 100 cases and 19 days later they have reached 6,880 cases. 13 March - Ireland passed 100 cases and 19 days later they have 3,477 cases. 14 March - Poland passed 100 cases and 18 days later they have 2,554 cases. 14 March - Phillipines passed 100 cases 18 days later they have 2,311 cases. 14 March - India passed 100 cases and 18 days later they have reached 1,988 cases. 17 March - Turkey passed 100 cases and 15 days later they have reached 15,769 cases. 23 March - NewZealand passed 100 cases and 10 days later they have reached 797 cases. Of the 27 countries 16 reached 100 cases before Australia and only 4 had less cases than Australia at the +22 day mark, Malaysia Denmark, Sweden and Norway. Of the 10 countries that reached 100 cases after us 5 already have more cases than us. The other 4 look like they will have less cases than us when they get to the 22 day mark we are on now and India may also be in that category if the 601 cases in the last day is an anomaly. Right at the moment the "best" performing country out of the 27 for low cases are India, Phillipines, and New Zealand although New Zealand isn't performing too well on the cases per 1m population stat. Interestingly Germany has more cases at the +22 day mark than Italy but only one tenth of the deaths.
  15. There was a line in an article a week or so ago that said the the FFA and Fox were scheduled to have their regular meeting today. Has anyone heard more about this?
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